Death of ObL, Nightmare for Pakistan: AQ Khan Under Threats; Army Chief Suggests to Nawaz Not to Demand Resignations; ISI Chief Surrenders to Parliament But His Tone Remains Unchanged?

Nawaz’s Bid to Mend Fences With US? Pak-US Agreement on Joint Operation for High Value Targets in Future?

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad:  Developments are taking place at a fast pace ever since Osama bin Laden was killed in a limited operation by US Navy SEALs in Abbottabad, 60 miles north of the federal capital, Islamabad.

The life of the most wanted man on earth was dangerous for peace and stability in Pakistan, but his death has become a nightmare for Pakistan, that puts the very fiber of the society at stake and integrity of the country in danger. The “Ghairat” (honor) brigade of media is very active as it is trying to bring the democratic dispensation under pressure on one hand and point its guns towards the security institutions on the other hand.

The debate sparked by the May 2 operation focused on Pakistan’s national sovereignty, but nobody amongst the hawks were ready to accept the fact that although the US action was undoubtedly a clear breach of the national sovereignty, the presence of ObL on Pakistani soil, especially in a garrison city like Abbottabad had equally subverted the national sovereignty and undermined our security framework.

However, the debate brought some positive changes and a bit of success for Pakistan, thanks to the civilian leadership from different parliamentary parties. The sources in power corridors have confided that the way the civilian leadership has played was actual reason for US to respond to the concerns expressed by Pakistan.

According to some sources, the president was actual force behind the move; he played in a way that finally brought everything towards him for a final settlement, thus for the time being civilian supremacy is accepted by worthy military establishment and that the whole elected political lot including Mian Nawaz Sharif provided him an opportunity to strengthen the civilian rule and also a moral authority in the present unpleasant situation.

Us Senator Kerry meeting president Zardari. PM, Interior Minister, COAS & US ambassador also seen in the picture.

Sources in the presidency say that during the luncheon meeting with US Senator and Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee of US Senate, also attended by PM Gilani and COAS General Kayani, president remained very reserve. According to the prepared plan he along with PM Gilani and Army Chief General Kayani met with the US representative with an expression less face, which is very unusual. Except for the photo session, he or anybody else from Pakistan side did not smile even for a single time and kept the talks focused around the resolution unanimously passed by in-camera joint sitting of the parliament held on the night between 13th and 14^th May.

The tough and strong arguments regarding the global view about attitude of Pakistan and its agencies and presence of Osama in a city like Abbottabad were exchanged, but the US senator had to agree on certain Pakistani conditions. The joint communiqué issued simultaneously by the Government and the US Embassy was prepared with the consent of Senator Kerry who himself gave go-ahead to the final draft of the declaration.

The joint declaration cited an agreement on joint operations in future if such a situation arises. But the hidden part of the meeting and agreement, which was not published for the media in the declaration, suggests that military and intelligence cooperation will follow some rules and will remain within some limits. For each case the ToRs of cooperation and responsibilities will be prepared in written shape in future, the IH reliability learnt.

Both the parties have agreed to reduce number of US defense personnel from existing more than 120 to 40. They also agreed to reduce CIA operatives in Pakistan according to the list prepared by the recent corps commanders conference and was handed over to CIA Station Chief in Islamabad, sources further confided.

The all three pillars were on the same page even before Senator Kerry arrived, sources in the power corridors confided. The US might not be sincere with Pakistan even after the recent agreement but Secretary of State Clinton’s call to president Zardari at the time when Kerry was meeting the COAS and later to the PM when he concluded his meeting with Kerry indicates that the US feared that loosing Pakistan may also be tantamount to loosing Afghanistan and putting 130,000 US soldiers in Afghanistan at stake especially in view of the recent attack by Taliban with an improvised device on British soldiers, and thus Pakistan took advantage of this psychological barrier, sources maintained.

On the other hand, the internal situation is still undergoing rapid changes, although all parties in the parliament along with PMLN willingly or unwillingly provided invisible support to the government, and situation is bit eased up for the civilians at the helm of the affairs, but still threats to system and civil military relations are at stake. Policy makers and the security agencies still fear that the US will not digest the strong reaction by Pakistan and will make another attempt to subvert Pakistan’s sovereignty. This time the target could be Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, father of the nuclear program.   

Pakistani scientist, A. Qadeer Khan

The government is being constantly apprised by the security apparatus that the security threats for Dr. AQ Khan are at peak, the house around AQ Khans’ residence has been hired by foreigners and they can harm or abduct him for their gains, sources maintained.

The security of AQ Khan is being beefed up, but the future of civil military relations remains a million dollar question as the country is passing through the post Kargil like situation when Mian Nawaz Sharif was sent to Washington to cover up the blunder committed by General Musharraf and his cronies, sources confided.

The indications for the very fact were witnessed during the recent joint parliamentary sitting, which lasted for more than 10 hours. Indeed the military leadership admitted its failure, but the briefing given to the sitting was not very significant, says Syed Zafar Ali Shah, a PML-N hawk. Although general Pasha surrendered before the parliament, it was for the sake of their institution, and not for the supremacy of the civilian rule, he added. The attitude of the uniformed top brass was rather contemptuous towards the elected representatives of the country, sources said adding that it was evident from the tone of the soldiers and the response they given to the elected representatives who asked tough questions or pointed out political hobnobbing by the agencies.

The tone was harsh and not like that of a person wanting to admit his mistakes, said Zafar Ali Shah. He however, was silent on the question that why PML-N did not ask for certain resignations over the Abbottabad incident. Sources closed to Mian Nawaz Sharif on the other hand answered this question. The close circles of Mian Nawaz Sharif have confided that the Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani had a one on one meeting with Mian Nawaz Sharif on May 9^th at his residence in Murree. The said meting took place on the first day of PML-N central leadership’s meeting in Islamabad when Mian Sb asked his party men to demand for the resignation of military top brass.

PML-N sources are of the view that Mian Sb was to demand resignations during his next day press briefing, and some how this was conveyed to the Army leadership that created bit of worry in Rawalpindi, thus the COAS rushed himself to his Murree residence and requested him not to do so. Mian Sb, according to the sources while accepting the suggestion, changed his words, but kept very harsh tone. This was also indicated in 15^th May media briefing when he demanded agencies budget and expenditure to be presented in the parliament.

The said statement was delivered short after his meeting with US Ambassador Cameron Munter, thus created an impression that he is trying to mend fences with US to once again coming in the good books, but in present situation it will reflect negatively for his politics in his strong hold of central Punjab.

On the other hand, some more information has been revealed regarding ObL investigations through the record recovered from his residence in Abbottabad, and sources said that the issue is being raised with the US authorities, as the same record is also available with them.

The intelligence communiqué sent to the PM House and presidency shows initial investigation results. The agencies in the initial report have claimed that a large quantity of drugs having tags of “Dawa Khana” famous clinic of Hyderabad (India) owned by Hakim Nasir Hyderabadi was recovered from the ObL compound. This shows that he was under treatment of the said quake.

The report also revealed that apart from Passports of his wives, letters and telephone numbers of certain Indians having reported links with ObL’s network were also recovered. The letters reveal that he was in constant touch with not only Hakim Nasir but also was in touch with Madan Lal Kohli, Praveen Kumar Advani and others.

The facts are still to be ascertained, but may be substantiated with the recent claims of Western media indicating some Indian connection being used for money transaction by ObL and Al-Qaeda. Report further reveals that a box of mobile SIMs was also recovered from ObL’s bedroom and these SIMs were used for making contact with these and other people around the globe. The letters, according to the report were sent to some other address and then taken to ObL’s house; thus the address of the house in which ObL was killed was not mentioned.

Madan Lal is a trader of onions and also supplies food items to Indian Consulate at Kandhar, Afghanistan, thus suspected of having links with intelligence agencies as well. The letters and the record also indicate that ObL also had contacts with Afghan Taliban and also with some other factions of Taliban elsewhere including Pakistan. About Mr. Advani report does not say much except that he is an Afghan business Tycoon having links and business with India.

It is also indicated in the report that shortly after the operation, security in Abbottabad was beefed up. During the house-to-house search in the area it was revealed that residents of another nearby house have disappeared. No clue about the missing residents of nearby house was indicated, but it is suspected that they were also working as messenger for ObL. It is also reported to the government that three persons were arrested from the same and nearby localities in Abbottabad last year. Record of All hotels of Abbottabad and Nathia Gali is also taken into possession to ascertain whereabouts and background of the foreigners who resided there during last five years.

Closing Note:  Meetings of Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador at Washington with Military and civilian leadership are about to produce productive and positive results for him. Although he was in town in relation to Senator Kerry’s visit, he had meetings with military top brass and Agency chiefs and apparently succeeded to restore their confidence and thus is expected to complete his present extension in tenure as ambassador, sources maintained.

Taliban Threatens to Blow Up Osama Residence in Abbotabad

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: The unusual house that Osama bin Laden used as his hideout just a stone’s throw from Pakistan’s premium Military Academy Kakul is said to be under serious threats, thus the authorities have beefed up security of the building and the adjacent locality, sources in the security forces have revealed.

The huge mansion has gained great interest since May 02, when US Navy SEALs conducted a limited operation killing Osama bin Laden without any significant resistance.

Ever since the operation, his residence became a place that attracts people in general and journalists and intelligence officials in Particular to visit. Intelligence people are visiting with full confidence and protocol and recovering letters and other evidence papers and items from the residence to be used in future, but unlike the spies, journalists were not fortunate enough as only few media men were allowed to enter the concrete building after few hours of the operation, but later the house was sealed.

Nobody even the foreign or the American journalists are being allowed to enter the house and witness the particles and items recovered from the building. Despite the ban on entering the house, the journalists were allowed till last week to approach the sealed gates, but the policy is turned overnight and nobody except the uniformed or plain clothed security officials are being allowed to go beyond 500 meters around the house.

Even renowned journalist and Waiting for Allah fame Christina Lamb was also stopped 500 meters away from the building and was sent back forcefully to Islamabad. Earlier three American journalists were captured and investigated for more than three hours, but it is not yet cleared that they have been released or are still in custody.

The security arrangements and reinforced and even foreign journalists are being interrogated in view of the latest threats by Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan. The TTP has recently threatened that it will blow up Osama’s residence, sources in the security forces revealed and added that the threat was given in view of the fact that the house has attracted wider debate in the global as well national media, thus becoming a source of trouble for the Al-Qaeda followers.

It is also revealed that the debate on the house and the details of ObL’s capture and murder and arrest of his family has had negative impacts on the ranks and files of Taliban and Al-Qaeda, and they also feared that the house may take a role of a tomb like of Hazrat Imam Hussain RA & other religious figures and this could be lethal for the Taliban philosophy as they do not believe in the tomb politics and such rituals, sources revealed.

It is to remind that the Pak army had already announced demolishing the house once the investigations are completed, but according to the sources that the decision may be changed due to certain ground realities. However any final decision may take some time as the investigators are recovering amazing facts and still need the structure to remain intact.

Sources also maintain that the house may not be demolished in near future as it may provide leads towards AL-Qaeda and other terrorist outfits, sources observed.

Mystery Still Surrounds the Death of Terrorism Mastermind: Hard Days Ahead for Pakistan; Security Establishment Under Strong Attack; Civil Government Comes to Its Rescue; Osamas’ Wife Shifted to Rawalpindi for Treatment; Daughters Are Under Protective Custody, But Where?

By Aijaz Ahmed:

President Obama and his security team watching the operation in real time from the White House

Islamabad: The news of  the ‘Operation Get Osama’ and the death of the terrorist mastermind and chief of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden has sent tremors throughout the country. Islamabad, the calm and quite capital of Pakistan, seems under a complete shock with mystifying meetings, phone calls and tight lips of the top brass, making the situation more difficult & incomprehensible for the observers and diplomatic commentators.

The operation was not a small incident; it was admittedly the biggest development of international importance since 9/11 terrorist attack when twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York were smashed by hijacked jet planes reportedly controlled by Al-Qaeda operatives.

Despite the global implications of the bombshell news, and the ensuing debate at all levels in and outside Pakistan, dilemma of the Pakistani media is the fact that although the operation took place on Pakistani soil, even the minor details of the action, and how the world’s most wanted man was spotted are coming from Washington through US media. 'We are getting the only truth that the United States wants to reveal', said local journalists gathered to cover tri-lateral meeting between Pakistan, Afghanistan and United States.

The only success the Pakistani media achieved during last twenty-four hours was the address of the owner of the mansion like house that Osama was using as his hideout. Both Arshad and his brother Tariq are supposed to be either killed or arrested, but no one except the US security establishment is in a position to reveal their whereabouts.

US Counterterrorism adviser John Brennan: "The minutes passed like days"

 As our readers would be fully aware, Indus Herald has already disclosed most of the information on the operation in its detailed story yesterday. Further details available to us suggest that the two daughters of OBL received some injuries, along with few other members of the family and some guards. Sources have disclosed that initially they received medical aid at Ayub Medical Complex, Abbottabad. The local hospital was completely sealed and no single civilian individual was even allowed to enter during the first part of the day, but later they were shifted to some unknown place due to security concerns, sources confided. The decision was solely taken because of the fears of backlash as information was reportedly leaked to terrorist outfits.

It is also believed that the woman used as human shield and killed was a family member of Arshad and Tariq, and she was not wife of OBL. The second lady who received injuries on left leg has been shifted to Rawalpindi for further investigations and is with Pakistani security agencies, the sources claimed. Passport of the said lady has also been recovered along with damaged computers and a laptop and few light weapons. 

The passport details indicate her name as Amal Ahmed bint e Abdul-Fatah, besides her credentials according to which she is wife of OBL and was born on 27^th March 1982. But nobody knows how serious her injuries are and what her condition is now, but it is believed that she is out of danger. It is also said that Ibrahim, son of OBL was among those who were killed in the operation conducted by 79 US Navy SEALs who arrived in four helicopters from Jalalabad. Another lady, supposedly a doctor of Pakistani origin is also injured and arrested in the operation.

Media has also reported about the will of OBL. According to the reported will, OBL has asked his children not to join Al-Qaeda and advised all wives not to marry again.

As far as keeping Pakistan in complete dark about the operation is concerned, it is confirmed that leads were actually provided by Pakistan. It intercepted a telephonic call last year as reported by IH. It is also reconfirmed by the sources that a cover was also provided by Pakistani commandos, but defense sources believe that the secrecy was maintained in the operation proceedings and nobody knew about what is going on and who the Navy SEALs are hunting for. The CIA Chief also indicated that the secrecy was maintained because of the fear that OBL will be tipped off if the intelligence is shared with Pakistan. The US embassy sources while confirming it quoted at least five incidents in the recent past when the shared information was leaked at lower level and the target succeeded to escape.

Meanwhile, a debate regarding the security of the nuclear assets and the performance security apparatus has started in the media. Everybody participating in the debate fears that even India can attack and Pakistan’s defense system may not be able to respond in such a case. “How can I trust such security establishment and intelligence agencies who do not know that such a high value target is residing under its nose” said Nazir Naji, leading columnist and added that how would they be able to protect Pakistan’s nuclear program.

The security establishment is still feeling the aftershocks. The COAS General Kayani hurriedly called off his scheduled Brussels visit and sources confided that the military leadership is amazed at the pressure being exerted by the local media supposedly controlled by the security establishment. Not all but certain anchors of leading TV Channels reportedly having links with one or the other agency are busy in the debate against security establishment that may lead towards worsening relations between the two leading spy agencies, sources believe. According to sources, General Kayani and General Pasha, the ISI head had another meeting with President Zardari and PM Gilani, before PM’s departure to France.

The civilian leadership is said to have expressed dismay over the situation arising from the operation.  However, the policy of maintaining complete silence was drawn with the consultation of Military and civilian leadership, but demand for complete truth is getting stronger with every passing hour. The military leadership after Kargil once again seems to be on the back foot as compared to the civilian leadership as nobody is ready to trust them any more under the current circumstances or without a credible briefing by the ISPR with complete details on the issue.

Meanwhile, on the clear directives of President Zardari, Foreign Office has issued a jointly prepared statement with some strong words to control the damage done so far, but the hawkish media doesn't seem to be satisfied. The statement issued by the government through FO states:

   

·        The Government of Pakistan recognizes that the death of Osama bin Ladin is an important milestone in fight against terrorism and that the Government of Pakistan and its state institutions have been making serious efforts to bring him to justice.

·        However, the Government of Pakistan categorically denies the media reports suggesting that its leadership, civil as well as military, had any prior knowledge of the US operation against Osama bin Ladin carried out in the early hours of 2nd May 2011.

·        Abbottabad and the surrounding areas have been under sharp focus of intelligence agencies since 2003 resulting in highly technical operation by ISI, which led to the arrest of high value Al Qaeda target in 2004. As far as the target compound is concerned, ISI had been sharing information with CIA and other friendly intelligence agencies since 2009. The intelligence flow indicating some foreigners in the surroundings of Abbottabad continued till mid April 2011.   It is important to highlight that taking advantage of much superior technological assets, CIA exploited the intelligence leads given by us to identify and reach Osama bin Ladin, a fact also acknowledged by the US President and Secretary of State, in their statements. It is also important to mention that CIA and some other friendly intelligence agencies have benefited a great deal from the intelligence provided by ISI. ISI’s own achievements against Al Qaeda and in War on Terror are more than any other intelligence agency in the World.

·        Reports about US helicopters taking off from Ghazi Airbase are absolutely false and incorrect. Neither any base or facility inside Pakistan was used by the US Forces, nor Pakistan Army provided any operational or logistic assistance to these operations conducted by the US Forces.  US helicopters entered Pakistani airspace making use of blind spots in the radar coverage due to hilly terrain. US helicopters’ undetected flight into Pakistan was also facilitated by the mountainous terrain, efficacious use of latest technology and ‘nap of the earth’ flying techniques. It may not be realistic to draw an analogy between this undefended civilian area and some military / security installations which have elaborate local defense arrangements.

·        On receipt of information regarding the incident, PAF scrambled its jets within minutes. This has been corroborated by the White House Advisor Mr. John Brennan who while replying to a question said, “We didn’t contact the Pakistanis until after all of our people, all of our aircraft were out of Pakistani airspace. At the time, the Pakistanis were reacting to an incident that they knew was taking place in Abbottabad. Therefore, they were scrambling some of their assets. Clearly, we were concerned that if the Pakistanis decided to scramble jets or whatever else, they didn’t know who were on those jets. They had no idea about who might have been on there, whether it be US or somebody else. So, we were watching and making sure that our people and our aircraft were able to get out of Pakistani airspace. And thankfully, there was no engagement with Pakistani forces. This operation was designed to minimize the prospects, the chances of engagement with Pakistani forces. It was done very well, and thankfully no Pakistani forces were engaged and there were no other individuals who were killed aside from those on the compound.”

·        There has been a lot of discussion about the nature of the targeted compound, particularly its high walls and its vicinity to the areas housing Pakistan Army elements. It needs to be appreciated that many houses occupied by the affectees of operations in FATA / KPK, have high boundary walls, in line with their culture of privacy and security. Houses with such layout and structural details are not a rarity.

·        Questions have also been asked about the whereabouts of the family members of Osama bin Ladin. They are all in safe hands and being looked after in accordance with law. Some of them needing medical care are under treatment in the best possible facilities. As per policy, they will be handed over to their countries of origin.

·        Notwithstanding the above, the Government of Pakistan expresses its deep concerns and reservations on the manner in which the Government of the United States carried out this operation without prior information or authorization from the Government of Pakistan.

·        This event of unauthorized unilateral action cannot be taken as a rule. The Government of Pakistan further affirms that such an event shall not serve as a future precedent for any state, including the US. Such actions undermine cooperation and may also sometime constitute threat to international peace and security. 

·        Pakistan, being mindful of its international obligations, has been extending full and proper cooperation on all counter terrorism efforts including exchange of information and intelligence. Pursuant to such cooperation, Pakistan had arrested several high profile terrorists.

·        The Government of Pakistan and its Armed Forces consider support of the people of Pakistan to be its mainstay and actual strength. Any actions contrary to their aspirations, therefore, run against the very basis on which the edifice of national defense and security is based. Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies have played a pivotal role in breaking the back of Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in Pakistan as well as around the World. Most of the successes achieved by the US and some other friendly countries have been the result of effective intelligence cooperation and extremely useful military support by Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan and its security forces have resolved to continue their fight against terrorism till people of Pakistan can live in peace and security.

Despite such a lengthy statement by the foreign Office, it is believed that President Zardari will himself come with some damage control and will take nation into confidence in one way or the other. He according to the sources was advised to sack some of the top military and intelligence officials, but he categorically refused saying that he will not let anybody damage national security institutions.

Map of the area. Photos, courtesy internet