Another US-Saudi Intervention in Pakistan; Threatens the Civilian Setup, Coerces Military Establishment

Pakistan is an unfortunate country as it has not only been prone to various calamities and disasters, but also throughout its history, it has remained battlefield for the international players. It is also a country that always remained under pressure from Saudi Arabia in the name of Muslim Ummah and China in the name of the evergreen friendship with heavy cost to Pakistan in the terms of industry, economy and trade of certain goods. However, it happens to be the biggest victim of US-Saudi nexus, which seems active once again and no wonder to dislodge political dispensation as in the past.

By Aijaz Ahmed

Former Afghanistan president, Burhanuddin Rabbani

Islamabad: US-Pakistan relations have further strained in the aftermath of the assassination of ex-Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani as the United States has accused Pakistan of it’s involvement in the terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan and Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI’s links with Haqqani network in Pakistan.

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta & US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen

As reported in the press, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has threatened to take “operational steps” against Pakistan while the US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen has accused the ISI of it’s involvement in the attack on the US Embassy in Kabul.

The developments have paved the way for another US intervention in Pakistan’s affairs as diplomatic sources have confided to this correspondent that the US administration has threatened to dislodge the civilian setup in Pakistan. According to the sources, the US administration wants Khakis at the helm of the affairs again and wants to get rid of the political government, which is not only scared of the disciplined khakis but also the undisciplined politicians having strong voice in the parliament and media. The US administration also wants to get rid of the vibrant parliament that for the first time in the history of this country took up such critical and serious issues like the war on terror and the killing of Osama bin Laden in a secret operation by a US Navy SEALS team.

Reason behind new US moves are of the multiple nature: the US administration wants an action against Haqqani group in Afghanistan while Pakistan considers this group indispensable for peace in Afghanistan as well as in the bordering tribal belt of Pakistan. A young Haqqani was preaching peace in Mohmand Agency till few months back with the blessings of the powers that be. The role that Haqqani group can play also suggests that it is the group that can foil the designs of anti Pakistan forces, and it is the group that has significant presence and influence in Pushtoon speaking Afghanistan specially the part adjacent to the Tribal belt right from South Waziristan to Bajaur Agency and Pakistan sees the influence of the group as a tool for positive dialogue with Taliban. Perhaps this is the biggest mistake that Pakistan is making and both Army and civilians seems on one page on the issue. The Unites States considers it as a fault of the civilian administration but at the same time, it blames ISI for the quagmire.

The sources in the diplomatic circles are confident that the United States has adopted two pronged strategy: on one hand it is giving threats of waging war against Pakistan on its reported links with the Haqqani group and other Taliban groups. It has also sent a critical message through Afghanistan president Hamid Karazai, which was delivered to Prime minister Gilani today when he paid a brief visit to Kabul to condole the death of Ustad Rabbani who was killed in a suicidal attack. The message was not soft, rather it contained some hidden threat, sources maintained and that is why Prime Minister rushed to Karachi direct from Kabul to discuss with the president the possible future scenario, they confided. It is considered as the pressure and fresh moves against the elected government and the parliament.

On the other hand the US is adopting a policy to maintain a bit soft corner for the Army, as it can be a valuable partner in future scenario. The army because of its training, discipline, and links with certain groups in and outside Pakistan is considered indispensable, and perhaps it is true and has been proved as a fact many times in the past.

However, the most important part of the strategy seems the point number one, i.e., putting more pressure on the civilian government and getting rid of the democracy, the parliament and the ruling politicians, and here comes the role of US stooges, unfortunately hailing from the Muslim world. And this time according to the sources, Saudi Arabia is playing the role of a stooge once gain to serve the United States and its interests and against Pakistan. Bahrain is still believed to be a part of the game.

It will be worth mentioning here that it was the same “bad” civilian government that provided human resource to Bahrain to control a pro democracy movement by Shiite Muslims near Saudi border, which turned into a deadly violence because of a firing incident. Pakistan also mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran just few months ago by the Zardari government. The savior of the Muslim Ummah is endangering the same Zardari government, along with the parliament, sources said.

Ex-military dictator Musharraf in the news again

Pervez Musharraf is again in the game too. The Saudis have interviewed him few weeks back and assured him of a better role in Pakistan in near future. The former military dictator is being assured full protection on his already announced return to Pakistan by 23^rd March next year. The only hurdle for his return would have been Mian Nawaz Sharif and Saudis are assuring him that Nawaz will not create problems for him. Nawaz will give a positive response or not, only time holds the answer, but sources are quite sure that the plan is underway to get rid of the present regime and the parliament. It can not be predicted whether the move will be successful or not, but the recent visits of Army Chief to Karachi, having meetings with Industrialists and making a Rangers deployment plan, the recent concerns on Karachi situation and a deadline for the government to solve the Karachi problem shall also be analyzed in the view of the above mentioned developments, but nobody in the parliament at this stage will have the courage ask a question from the COAS that under which law he intervened in civilian government’s ambit and held meetings on law and order issue which is purely a civilian matter. The law of the land and the Constitution clearly prohibits him for holding such meetings. 

Devastation in Sindh and the Role of the Media: A Journalist's Anguish

A family leaves inundated home in search of a higher ground in Badin, Sindh area during the recent floods

A letter to the editor:

Being a member of the journalist community, I feel ashamed of my self on the role the print as well as electronic media is playing vis-à-vis devastating floods in Sindh. Indeed we have large number of the politicians who engage in corrupt political practices, but they at least reach their people whenever and wherever people face calamities. It is also true that we have a corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy and districts administration everywhere in the country, but it is a harsh fact that all of them hail from our society where Mospell (mosquito repellent) price is increased just because the Dengue hits the country. We are moneymaking people no matter from where and how it comes. From Police to Teachers and from Doctors to common shopkeepers, everybody makes money with wrong doing and illegal practices. It is also true that the present government and its leaders lack credibility, but because of whom? It is because of the media. As a community member for the last 25 years, I can smell the motive behind every news item, and the current affairs programme, but there should be some limit. During the last devastation floods media, especially a particular section/group from the electronic and print media published negative news items and analysis against the government and raised questions of credibility at such a critical moment when an international appeal was launched thus the response was poor. It was not because of the credibility of just one man, it was mainly because of the media campaign at such a crucial moment, and this was confirmed to me by a very high ranking, and principled officer at foreign office who maintained that the foreign governments raised the question of negative media campaign at such a crucial moment.

Unfortunately this is being practiced again and by the same people who consider themselves as ‘Wali’ or ‘Mujadid’ and the rest as "Shaitan” thus will leave negative campaign on the international appeal for poor Sindhi brothers and sisters. It is also a matter of concern for me as it is my observation not because I hail from Sindh, but because I am a Punjabi Speaking born in Sindh and understand the sentiments and thinking of Punjab and Sindh. The media houses either from Karachi, Lahore or elsewhere, rushed whenever a calamity hits the catchment area of the Establishment i.e certain part of KPK, Kashmir or Punjab, but unfortunately when 70% of Sindh is devastated or destroyed nobody bothered because these poor Sindhis don't matter in decision making, and additionally negative campaign is started to stop the international help without which the loss can not be recovered.

I hope my community will take my comment as a fair one and will give an attention to the assertions I made in the mail.

Aijaz Ahmed

CNBC islamabad

Punjab Will Be The New Battlefield? PPP-PML-Q Moves To Dethrone Shahbaz Sharif

By Aijaz Ahmed

As the political chess board in Pakistan seems to have relatively opened up, the knights of the PPP, the major political stakeholder of the democratic dispensation, are apparently getting ready for the next move, obviously the task to ‘take over’ Punjab, a long awaited dream of PPP since the days of first ZAB government.

The political observers are minutely watching every move of President Zardari and the shrewd Choudhris of Gujrat, and calling Nawaz Sharif a Maulvi in a recent speech by the president himself at Naudero was a clear indication of the future strategy. 

Whistles of change are being blown in the country, and this time the change is to come in Punjab, say party insiders in the power corridors of Islamabad. ‘Kashmir elections were test case for us’, say party insiders adding that every thing moved in right direction for us according to our plan. ‘Observers were indicating a clear victory for PPP in Kashmir and we achieved that task’, insiders say adding that ‘Nawaz Sharif miscalculated the situation and fell in the trap we planned for him’, they added.

Mian Nawaz Sharif rather helped our plan move forward, the party sources said and further maintained that the tone and the words President Zardari adopted in the Naudero speech were calculated and were a strong response to the speeches Mian Nawaz Sharif was delivering during the election campaign for Kashmir. MNS did not unfold PML-N’s election manifesto and future plans for Kashmir. He rather followed the line of Ch. Nisar and his other fellows who in the recent past made Mian sahib politically isolated, and thus the election campaign of PML-N in Kashmir paid us, sources said.

‘Winning two seats from Rawalpindi - Islamabad out of three had been a landmark for us and gives us confidence to move forward’, party sources are claiming. The next move will be against Shahbaz Sharif, sources added. Backdoor political contacts are established with Unification block and the group may be offered assurances for next elections, a sizable number of lucrative ministries and deputy speaker-ship in the Punjab Assembly, sources reveal.

Return of Unification Block to PML-Q fold is a matter of days now, sources claimed. Ch. Wajahat is being tipped as new Governor in case the change occurs and Chief Minister-ship will remain with PPP. Mian Manzoor Wattoo, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, Raja Riaz, Ch. Ahmed Mukhtar and Qamar Zaman Kaira are being assigned important roles to finalize the move and get results. Faryal Talpur and Syed Khursheed Shah will be overall in-charge of the move as they were in Kashmir, sources maintained.

Latif Khosa, the sitting Governor of Punjab can be assigned a new and more important role in future in case Ch. Family will be given Governorship, sources said. Setting up PPP led government in Punjab is a long awaited PPP dream as after ZAB government, Punjab was never ruled by the party itself, said party sources adding that the move will preempt political threats to the democratic set up from the present Punjab Government.

We have received information and strong evidence that the PML-N was planning a long march to press for its demand of mid term polls if it had won the Kashmir elections. The victory in the valley could have given legitimacy and strength to its demand, and thus we made counter moves and removing Shahbaz Sharif is part and parcel of the planning to release political pressure from Punjab, sources maintained. The move is planned, but time frame for the change at the moment could not be given, sources maintained adding that the change in Punjab would be the only solution for PPP to implement its manifesto and bring some relief to the common men to ensure victory in next general elections, which may be held next year. 

Nawaz Answered Government’s SOS & Rushed Back to the Country; Osama’s Death & Civil-Military Row; Who Asked Mark Siegel to Publish Write Up by Zardari?

(This was published on May 12th. Due to some problem with the blog, it has been re-posted.) 
By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: The May 2 Abbottabad operation, which resulted in the discovery and murder of world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden at the hands of US Navy SEALs has brought the civil-military relationship in Pakistan to a new low. The mistrust between the two has increased manifold. It is feared that the imbroglio may end up in the pack up of another democratic dispensation.

Observers are unanimous that the country’s civilian leadership was stunned at the news and couldn’t respond quickly to it but they are really surprised at the response or the lack of it by the military leadership. They feel that the military hierarchy’s behavior was quite perplexing. They were remarkably silent and seemed quite oblivious in the first few days after the US operation as if nothing had happened. Later they mishandled the issue in the media and attempted to undermine the political leadership. That raises concerns of the people about junta’s intentions towards the democratic government.

Sources in the power corridors have confided to this scribe that the civilian leadership is taking many questions into account so as to regroup and formulate a counter strategy. Every single move by the army chief and other military top men is being minutely watched and analyzed. The civilian leadership is quite unhappy over the recent statement of top ranking military leadership regarding the government in its post Osama briefing to media and anchorpersons. The address of Army Chief General Kayani to Garrison Officers at three top cantonments has also caused concern amongst the civilian leadership through which an impression was given that the civilians are ineffective and it is they who are making damage control efforts despite a huge understanding on the issue between the President, Prime Minister and the Army Chief, sources maintained.

The civilian leadership sincerely intends to control the damage but for many reasons it is clueless and directionless, sources observed adding that every effort of independent inquiry was thwarted and blocked by the military, thus an inquiry under Adjutant General has been constituted. How come a serving subordinate will be able to conduct an independent inquiry against his immediate bosses, asked a sitting minister however adding that everybody will have to wait for the outcome of the inquiry being conducted by army itself.

On the other hand civilians are trying to get answers of many questions including the one that whether or not they have been ditched by the intelligence networks. The people also want an answer to the question if OBL’s presence in Abbottabad was in the knowledge of the relevant agencies and military leadership.

Meanwhile, sources observed that a sizeable number of the civilians seriously believed that they have been ditched. A serious question is being raised in view of the recent statements by some neighbors pointing out that when they heard the blast after the helicopter crash, they tried to approach OBL’s compound but they were stopped by some guards speaking Urdu.

These statements, in view of some sources, clearly indicate that an earlier report carried by Indus Herald that some soldiers were provided for outer cordon was correct. This also indicates that a section of Pakistani establishment knew about a US strike, but they might not be privy to the details of the proceedings.

A section of media and politicians are also looking for an answer to the question that if the operation was done in total dark and without a prior information of Pakistan, then how come the people who have been arrested after the operation from the compound did not escape although they got at least 15 minutes before the arrival of any Pakistani security personnel? Hamza bin Laden is believed to have taken the advantage of the time gap and ran away from the scene as reported by the British media is quite a good evidence in support of the above argument.

The president and the other PPP leaders wanted an independent inquiry to be held, but they had to accept the decision by military leadership as desired by Army Chief sources said adding that the powers that be asked civilians to stay away from the damage control efforts and they will be the ones who will be responsible to take on the situation and control the damage, but the situation deteriorated with every passing day. However, the military leadership was not happy with the way some TV channels sparked debate and took them to task with strong words and allegations of incompetence and negligence.

It is also said that the president has been advised that besides the inquiry announced by the military leadership, an independent parliamentary inquiry commission with presence of opposition leader Ch. Nisar, and some of the top retired judges must be set up. However, the sources observed that the government would be packed up if such an inquiry were established. It is also believed that the president is willing to set up such an inquiry with Army Chief and other military leadership on board.

Meanwhile, a section of media is probing an allegation that the officers in KPK were asked not to leave their station and stay in before the operation and all mobile phones of the uniformed officers were blocked on May 01. However this story has not been confirmed by any reliable source.

On the other hand, sources in the PML-N have confided to this scribe that Mian Nawaz Sharif responded to a May-Day call by the government through unconventional means and rushed to Pakistan. The government wanted to block Ch. Nisar’s cynical criticism. Mian Nawaz Sharif on the first day of his top leadership meeting strongly supported the idea of a demand of resignation of both Army Chief and the ISI Chief, a demand that didn’t get much response earlier.  He according to the sources has assured the PPP that any attempt to subvert the Constitution and dislodge the civilian rule will be resisted with full force. At a press conference after the two-day PML-N meeting Mian Nawaz Sharif rejected the inquiry set up by military and demanded a Judicial Commission to look in the matter. He severely criticized the military establishment.

An interesting information has also come from the sources at the presidency that an internal inquiry is being conducted to identify the person who asked PPP’s lobbyist Mark Siegel to publish an article in the name of President Zardari, praising Osama’s death just few hours after the killing. The sources claim that the president didn’t write that good English. The sources say the president did not write the article in the Washington Post but he is in a fix and could not remove Mr. Siegel because of his previous support.

President, according to sources is also not happy with the statement of COAS regarding his advice to the government for calling a joint in-camera sitting of both the houses of the parliament, but he is waiting for the outcome and briefing points to the legislators before moving further, sources maintain.      

Pakistan’s Defense Needs Protection! Own Policies Make Defense Establishment Insecure!

By Aijaz Ahmed

Military Headquarters around the world are considered to be the symbol of their military might.  These power centers particularly in societies like ours, which remains in search of strategic depth and happens to be the ‘security state’, becomes more significant as it plays the role of the saviors as well as masters of the all policies. The bloody civilians whenever put in the power remain subservient to the military leadership be it is Pakistan, Thailand, Egypt or any other such state.

Pakistan has further significance and unique situation from its inception, because from the day one it entangled in war like situation with India, and for last thirty years it has been searching strategic depth in its West, thus a nexus has developed between the military Establishment and the civilian jihadi brigades in the name of Afghan Jihad, and war in the name of Kashmir, with the GHQ becoming a source of inspiration and support for such outfits taking the role of a policy framer, which normally is the domain of the elected parliament.

Also the nexus, developed between the jihadis, a section of politicians, traders and industrialists, demanded more orthodox approach for the security of the military installations and headquarters of the corps, the air force, the navy and the intelligence establishments and their buildings have been put on stake.

Terrorists attacked GHQ in the center of large city, Rawalpindi in October, 2009

The brazen attacks on GHQ in Rawalpindi in 2009 and PNS Mehran in Karachi recently in which senior and very efficient officers were killed and two PC-3 Orion aircrafts were completely destroyed have exposed how our military installations and the whole security apparatus is vulnerable. The lately developed nexus between the builders’ mafia and the commercialism in the forces has made these installations more vulnerable and further endangered them.

If one visits the area around the GHQ, he will encounter very busy markets in a radius of just one kilometer around the military headquarters. High-rise buildings are an added phenomenon around the GHQ. The next important place in military terms is ISI headquarters in Islamabad; it is situated on the busiest road of Islamabad near Aabpara. Again it is next to a high-rise building belonging to an Islamic organization, and also exposed to the certain tall buildings of blue area just in the radius of one kilometer. Naval headquarters in Islamabad was also situated at melody up till few years back, but fortunately was shifted towards Margalla Hills and thus maintaining security is bit easier.

Situation in other cities is also not different; a tall commercial plaza is built in front of Corps Commanders House in Lahore. As far as Karachi is concerned, either deliberate or an innocent mistake has been made especially at Shahrah e Faisal. Overheads have been built to ease out traffic, but all overheads have exposed very sensitive installations including the PNS Mehran.

Courtesy, STRATFOR

In addition, all cantonments at Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Quetta, Bahawalpur, Multan and other major cities are surrounded by civilian and thickly populated localities. It is noteworthy that the Lahore Cantonment was built during the British rule and at that time it was 15 miles away from the walled city.  

In the modern day world technological advancement has made such buildings of very high significance just one hand away from the terrorist organizations, says Munir Baloch, senior writer and analyst. These buildings and military installations are under serious threat and thus emergency steps are needed to shift them at secure place, he added.

It is to remind that the Ayub Khan Government planned sifting of GHQ at Sector D-11 and E-10. The first Bhutto government marked 2400 acres of land at D-11 and 870 acres at E-10 and an initial report was prepared in 1987 to construct GHQ, JSHQ, and defense Ministry at the marked land. This project also included construction of residence, schools and other facilities for 17,000 employees of these organizations.

General Musharraf in 2004 planed to start construction of proposed buildings and facilities which was to be completed in 2007, but civil society, political parties including PPP, PMLN, ANP, MMA and MQM raised strong voice against this project in view of the financial crisis, thus the project was delayed and lately was cancelled by General Kayani.

Similarly Admiral Yastoor ul Haq planned to build a naval port at Ormara Balochistan, as present Karachi port and Port Qasim are exposed to commercial traffic and are adjacent to the city of Karachi. The project was delayed due to unknown reasons. In 2007, Pak Navy made a request to Balochistan government for purchase of 11,000 acres of land in Koh e Imam near Turbat airport, acting on which the provincial government through its order No 14/LU-2007, 10,095 acres of land was handed over to the Navy. Another 2500 acres of land was also acquired in Tehsil Dasht of District Kaich against relatively high price, but still navy is anchored around Shahrah e Faisal and Karsaz.

The situation Pakistan is passing through and in view of the war on terror, the sensitive military and intelligence installations need to be shifted to safer places away from population centers. This will also help in reducing threats to the civilian population around them at present.

Death of ObL, Nightmare for Pakistan: AQ Khan Under Threats; Army Chief Suggests to Nawaz Not to Demand Resignations; ISI Chief Surrenders to Parliament But His Tone Remains Unchanged?

Nawaz’s Bid to Mend Fences With US? Pak-US Agreement on Joint Operation for High Value Targets in Future?

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad:  Developments are taking place at a fast pace ever since Osama bin Laden was killed in a limited operation by US Navy SEALs in Abbottabad, 60 miles north of the federal capital, Islamabad.

The life of the most wanted man on earth was dangerous for peace and stability in Pakistan, but his death has become a nightmare for Pakistan, that puts the very fiber of the society at stake and integrity of the country in danger. The “Ghairat” (honor) brigade of media is very active as it is trying to bring the democratic dispensation under pressure on one hand and point its guns towards the security institutions on the other hand.

The debate sparked by the May 2 operation focused on Pakistan’s national sovereignty, but nobody amongst the hawks were ready to accept the fact that although the US action was undoubtedly a clear breach of the national sovereignty, the presence of ObL on Pakistani soil, especially in a garrison city like Abbottabad had equally subverted the national sovereignty and undermined our security framework.

However, the debate brought some positive changes and a bit of success for Pakistan, thanks to the civilian leadership from different parliamentary parties. The sources in power corridors have confided that the way the civilian leadership has played was actual reason for US to respond to the concerns expressed by Pakistan.

According to some sources, the president was actual force behind the move; he played in a way that finally brought everything towards him for a final settlement, thus for the time being civilian supremacy is accepted by worthy military establishment and that the whole elected political lot including Mian Nawaz Sharif provided him an opportunity to strengthen the civilian rule and also a moral authority in the present unpleasant situation.

Us Senator Kerry meeting president Zardari. PM, Interior Minister, COAS & US ambassador also seen in the picture.

Sources in the presidency say that during the luncheon meeting with US Senator and Chairman of Foreign Relations Committee of US Senate, also attended by PM Gilani and COAS General Kayani, president remained very reserve. According to the prepared plan he along with PM Gilani and Army Chief General Kayani met with the US representative with an expression less face, which is very unusual. Except for the photo session, he or anybody else from Pakistan side did not smile even for a single time and kept the talks focused around the resolution unanimously passed by in-camera joint sitting of the parliament held on the night between 13th and 14^th May.

The tough and strong arguments regarding the global view about attitude of Pakistan and its agencies and presence of Osama in a city like Abbottabad were exchanged, but the US senator had to agree on certain Pakistani conditions. The joint communiqué issued simultaneously by the Government and the US Embassy was prepared with the consent of Senator Kerry who himself gave go-ahead to the final draft of the declaration.

The joint declaration cited an agreement on joint operations in future if such a situation arises. But the hidden part of the meeting and agreement, which was not published for the media in the declaration, suggests that military and intelligence cooperation will follow some rules and will remain within some limits. For each case the ToRs of cooperation and responsibilities will be prepared in written shape in future, the IH reliability learnt.

Both the parties have agreed to reduce number of US defense personnel from existing more than 120 to 40. They also agreed to reduce CIA operatives in Pakistan according to the list prepared by the recent corps commanders conference and was handed over to CIA Station Chief in Islamabad, sources further confided.

The all three pillars were on the same page even before Senator Kerry arrived, sources in the power corridors confided. The US might not be sincere with Pakistan even after the recent agreement but Secretary of State Clinton’s call to president Zardari at the time when Kerry was meeting the COAS and later to the PM when he concluded his meeting with Kerry indicates that the US feared that loosing Pakistan may also be tantamount to loosing Afghanistan and putting 130,000 US soldiers in Afghanistan at stake especially in view of the recent attack by Taliban with an improvised device on British soldiers, and thus Pakistan took advantage of this psychological barrier, sources maintained.

On the other hand, the internal situation is still undergoing rapid changes, although all parties in the parliament along with PMLN willingly or unwillingly provided invisible support to the government, and situation is bit eased up for the civilians at the helm of the affairs, but still threats to system and civil military relations are at stake. Policy makers and the security agencies still fear that the US will not digest the strong reaction by Pakistan and will make another attempt to subvert Pakistan’s sovereignty. This time the target could be Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, father of the nuclear program.   

Pakistani scientist, A. Qadeer Khan

The government is being constantly apprised by the security apparatus that the security threats for Dr. AQ Khan are at peak, the house around AQ Khans’ residence has been hired by foreigners and they can harm or abduct him for their gains, sources maintained.

The security of AQ Khan is being beefed up, but the future of civil military relations remains a million dollar question as the country is passing through the post Kargil like situation when Mian Nawaz Sharif was sent to Washington to cover up the blunder committed by General Musharraf and his cronies, sources confided.

The indications for the very fact were witnessed during the recent joint parliamentary sitting, which lasted for more than 10 hours. Indeed the military leadership admitted its failure, but the briefing given to the sitting was not very significant, says Syed Zafar Ali Shah, a PML-N hawk. Although general Pasha surrendered before the parliament, it was for the sake of their institution, and not for the supremacy of the civilian rule, he added. The attitude of the uniformed top brass was rather contemptuous towards the elected representatives of the country, sources said adding that it was evident from the tone of the soldiers and the response they given to the elected representatives who asked tough questions or pointed out political hobnobbing by the agencies.

The tone was harsh and not like that of a person wanting to admit his mistakes, said Zafar Ali Shah. He however, was silent on the question that why PML-N did not ask for certain resignations over the Abbottabad incident. Sources closed to Mian Nawaz Sharif on the other hand answered this question. The close circles of Mian Nawaz Sharif have confided that the Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani had a one on one meeting with Mian Nawaz Sharif on May 9^th at his residence in Murree. The said meting took place on the first day of PML-N central leadership’s meeting in Islamabad when Mian Sb asked his party men to demand for the resignation of military top brass.

PML-N sources are of the view that Mian Sb was to demand resignations during his next day press briefing, and some how this was conveyed to the Army leadership that created bit of worry in Rawalpindi, thus the COAS rushed himself to his Murree residence and requested him not to do so. Mian Sb, according to the sources while accepting the suggestion, changed his words, but kept very harsh tone. This was also indicated in 15^th May media briefing when he demanded agencies budget and expenditure to be presented in the parliament.

The said statement was delivered short after his meeting with US Ambassador Cameron Munter, thus created an impression that he is trying to mend fences with US to once again coming in the good books, but in present situation it will reflect negatively for his politics in his strong hold of central Punjab.

On the other hand, some more information has been revealed regarding ObL investigations through the record recovered from his residence in Abbottabad, and sources said that the issue is being raised with the US authorities, as the same record is also available with them.

The intelligence communiqué sent to the PM House and presidency shows initial investigation results. The agencies in the initial report have claimed that a large quantity of drugs having tags of “Dawa Khana” famous clinic of Hyderabad (India) owned by Hakim Nasir Hyderabadi was recovered from the ObL compound. This shows that he was under treatment of the said quake.

The report also revealed that apart from Passports of his wives, letters and telephone numbers of certain Indians having reported links with ObL’s network were also recovered. The letters reveal that he was in constant touch with not only Hakim Nasir but also was in touch with Madan Lal Kohli, Praveen Kumar Advani and others.

The facts are still to be ascertained, but may be substantiated with the recent claims of Western media indicating some Indian connection being used for money transaction by ObL and Al-Qaeda. Report further reveals that a box of mobile SIMs was also recovered from ObL’s bedroom and these SIMs were used for making contact with these and other people around the globe. The letters, according to the report were sent to some other address and then taken to ObL’s house; thus the address of the house in which ObL was killed was not mentioned.

Madan Lal is a trader of onions and also supplies food items to Indian Consulate at Kandhar, Afghanistan, thus suspected of having links with intelligence agencies as well. The letters and the record also indicate that ObL also had contacts with Afghan Taliban and also with some other factions of Taliban elsewhere including Pakistan. About Mr. Advani report does not say much except that he is an Afghan business Tycoon having links and business with India.

It is also indicated in the report that shortly after the operation, security in Abbottabad was beefed up. During the house-to-house search in the area it was revealed that residents of another nearby house have disappeared. No clue about the missing residents of nearby house was indicated, but it is suspected that they were also working as messenger for ObL. It is also reported to the government that three persons were arrested from the same and nearby localities in Abbottabad last year. Record of All hotels of Abbottabad and Nathia Gali is also taken into possession to ascertain whereabouts and background of the foreigners who resided there during last five years.

Closing Note:  Meetings of Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador at Washington with Military and civilian leadership are about to produce productive and positive results for him. Although he was in town in relation to Senator Kerry’s visit, he had meetings with military top brass and Agency chiefs and apparently succeeded to restore their confidence and thus is expected to complete his present extension in tenure as ambassador, sources maintained.

Taliban Threatens to Blow Up Osama Residence in Abbotabad

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: The unusual house that Osama bin Laden used as his hideout just a stone’s throw from Pakistan’s premium Military Academy Kakul is said to be under serious threats, thus the authorities have beefed up security of the building and the adjacent locality, sources in the security forces have revealed.

The huge mansion has gained great interest since May 02, when US Navy SEALs conducted a limited operation killing Osama bin Laden without any significant resistance.

Ever since the operation, his residence became a place that attracts people in general and journalists and intelligence officials in Particular to visit. Intelligence people are visiting with full confidence and protocol and recovering letters and other evidence papers and items from the residence to be used in future, but unlike the spies, journalists were not fortunate enough as only few media men were allowed to enter the concrete building after few hours of the operation, but later the house was sealed.

Nobody even the foreign or the American journalists are being allowed to enter the house and witness the particles and items recovered from the building. Despite the ban on entering the house, the journalists were allowed till last week to approach the sealed gates, but the policy is turned overnight and nobody except the uniformed or plain clothed security officials are being allowed to go beyond 500 meters around the house.

Even renowned journalist and Waiting for Allah fame Christina Lamb was also stopped 500 meters away from the building and was sent back forcefully to Islamabad. Earlier three American journalists were captured and investigated for more than three hours, but it is not yet cleared that they have been released or are still in custody.

The security arrangements and reinforced and even foreign journalists are being interrogated in view of the latest threats by Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan. The TTP has recently threatened that it will blow up Osama’s residence, sources in the security forces revealed and added that the threat was given in view of the fact that the house has attracted wider debate in the global as well national media, thus becoming a source of trouble for the Al-Qaeda followers.

It is also revealed that the debate on the house and the details of ObL’s capture and murder and arrest of his family has had negative impacts on the ranks and files of Taliban and Al-Qaeda, and they also feared that the house may take a role of a tomb like of Hazrat Imam Hussain RA & other religious figures and this could be lethal for the Taliban philosophy as they do not believe in the tomb politics and such rituals, sources revealed.

It is to remind that the Pak army had already announced demolishing the house once the investigations are completed, but according to the sources that the decision may be changed due to certain ground realities. However any final decision may take some time as the investigators are recovering amazing facts and still need the structure to remain intact.

Sources also maintain that the house may not be demolished in near future as it may provide leads towards AL-Qaeda and other terrorist outfits, sources observed.

Gross Financial Irregularity in Punjab: Funds Allocated for Clean Drinking Water Project Diverted to “Sasti Roti” Project

Punjab Government Suggests Closure of the Foreign Funded Program

By: Aijaz Ahmed

Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif presiding over a meeting

Corruption and financial irregularities don’t seem to be limited to an individual or a single political party in Pakistan. One very often hears about the fabled corruption of the president of Pakistan and co-chairperson of PPP and also about the gross irregularities, mismanagement and corruption in the federal government. The accusers among others include the PML-N leaders who claim running a very clean government in the Punjab, the largest province in Pakistan. But as this report suggests their hands are not as clean either. They have engaged in financial irregularities and also seem to be playing gimmicks for short-term political gains at the cost of the welfare of the common men. 

The much-hyped clean government of the iron man # 2, Mian Shahbaz Sharif has been involved in certain gross financial irregularities, which have been strongly defended by party stalwarts with politics of counter allegations against their opponents.

In one instance, the provincial government tried to replace the federal governments’ initiative of financial support through Benazir Income Support Program with its own food stamp program, which proved a big failure. “Sasta Ramzan Bazar” (Cheap Ramzaan Bazaar) was another example of political gimmicks. During that program, large numbers of people would come to the distribution centers to get cheap wheat flour even in the posh localities of the major cities of Punjab. Several innocent people lost their lives in the stampedes caused due to the mismanagement by the authorities.

The Punjab government also redirected development funds allocated for the Southern Punjab towards such schemes having no real impact or benefit for the common men. The State Bank figures indicated that more than 70% of the development funds for Siraiki region were shifted to these programs. The “Sasti Roti” (Cheap Bread) Scheme also received severe criticism from across the country on this account.

The PML-N leadership blamed the federal government for the failure of the “Sasti Roti” Scheme. It became a major source of tension between the provincial government and the former Governor late Salman Taseer.

The scheme ate up a sum of 38 billion rupees in total, and according to the provincial government sources, major spending came from the projects initiated either by the federal government itself or through foreign funding. The Punjab government finally scrapped the Sasti Roti scheme after the Rs7.85 billion-loan debt accrued from commercial banks was left unpaid by the food department owing to non-provision of funds earmarked in the financial years 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Funds redirected towards the scheme included the amount allocated for a CDWA funded project of “Clean Drinking Water for All”. The Punjab government after paying initial mobilization amount to the contractor at district level redirected the remaining funds to the failed scheme. The funds released by the federal government amounted Rs. 1,961 million. However, only 285 safe and clean drinking water pumps were installed and no further payment was made to the contractor.

The amount was said to be redirected to take political mileage as the short sighted leadership considered the clean drinking water as a complete wastage or a source for political gain for the government in center. Thus, the provincial government instead of taking responsibility for the failure has asked the government through its project director to close the project.

In the letter sent through the planning division the provincial government has suggested that due to the shortage of funds it is impossible to implement the project in time, while the execution and completion dates have already passed.

Contrarily, the planning division in its summary sent to the Prime Minister House has started playing its own game. The summary reads as:

                       

Subject:            Clean Drinking Water – A Golden Opportunity.

Pakistan is currently spending around PKR 50-60 Billion annually on its health bill. In a recent study carried out by UNICEF, it was determined that almost 20-40 % of hospital beds are occupied by patients suffering from Water Borne Diseases e.g. diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, polio, hepatitis A and E. It is estimated that over 230,000 children die a year because of diarrhea and typhoid.

The World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in 2002 set its plan of action for implementation of the Millennium Development Goals as under:

“Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water”

“Safeguard human health, including reduction in the mortality rate (associated with lack of access to safe drinking water, inadequate sanitation and poor hygiene), by improving the quality of drinking water”

For the pilot phase, the project on “Clean Drinking Water Initiative” was approved and about Rs. 1.0 billion has been spent on it with installation of 406 water filtration plants of 2000/4000 liters/hour capacity in all Districts/Tehsil Headquarters of Pakistan including AJK/ GB and FATA.

The 2nd phase of the Project was named “Clean Drinking Water for All” (CDWA) project. It was planned to install 6626 water filtration plants of (2000/ 4000 liters/ hour); one in each Union Council of Pakistan.

Revised PC-1 was approved by ECNEC in November 2007 for Rs. 15,843 million.

The contracts of Sindh, Balochistan and KPK were signed in 2007, while the contracts of Punjab, AJK & ICT packets for UF plants and RO for Punjab packets were signed on 30^th June 2009.

Total funds transferred by Federal Govt. to the Provinces/Regions on CDWA project is about Rs. 7 billion.

So far, the project has achieved substantial completion only in Balochistan, with 406 plants installed out of a total of 409 plants. In all the remaining provinces the project is incomplete due to several reasons and only about 1203 water filtration plants have been installed all over the country.

The worst situation is in Punjab, where out of 2895 plants only 285 have been installed although the contract was signed on 30^th June 2009, with a completion period of 9 months.

Federal Govt. transferred Rs. 3,771 million to Punjab Govt. out of which it paid Rs. 1,810 million as first mobilization advance to the contactors. Thus Govt. of Punjab has Rs. 1,961 million funds remaining with them, out of which it has a contractual liability to pay 2^nd mobilization advance and payments against work executed.

The Govt. of Punjab, in not making any further payments after the ^1st mobilization advance, caused the work to be suspended. Now after devolution of the Projects to the provinces, Punjab Govt. is considering capping the project. However, doing so will most likely lead to litigation initiated by the contractors.

It is opined that in a bid to drive political mileage for PML (N), the Govt. of Punjab has diverted the funds to its “Sasti Roti” program, as it wants to project PML (N) as the only political party that wishes well for the poor.

The Govt. of Punjab considers that the CDWA Project being a Federal initiative, and having far-reaching positive results for the masses across the country, would not help PML (N) in its “popularity” drive. Hence the Govt. of Punjab is basically aiming at blocking the Federal Govt. from gaining the perceived appreciation.

WAY FORWARD

Federalization of CDWA Project and Federal Govt. to become its Employer instead of Provincial Govt. and Federal PMU to administer the project execution.

The Govt. of Punjab may be asked to refund Rs. 1,961 million back to the Federal Govt. For further execution of the remaining project, necessary funds may be arranged under Shaheed Benazir Income Support / Welfare Programme.

If any other Province also decides to close this project then in national interest the Federal Govt. may also takeover it under the above mentioned programme.

The PPP parliamentarians at the Federal and Provincial levels to coordinate for the installation of the plants at the same locations as given under the contract, to prevent any conflict with the local administration.

According to the contract, Operation and Maintenance is the responsibility of the contractors for 3 years, thereby ensuring the initial success of the project’s execution. For onward execution, an arrangement to either lease out the plants to the same contractors for a further period as agreed, or to bring in fresh O&M contracting firms through a tendering process is proposed.

In this arrangement, the government would not have to bear any cost as the leasing arrangement would involve selling of treated water to the masses by the contractor. This would be done at extremely affordable prices e.g. Rs 0.50/liter for sweet water and Rs. 1.00 per liter for brackish water, while covering the operational costs.

In a nutshell, this program is focused at the basic need of providing clean drinking water to the masses and hence is strong social sector uplift and a means for Pakistan to fulfill its international obligations under the MDGs.”

However, the commission fails to understand the fall out of the decision in the changing political scenario that may lead towards political animosity between rival PPP and PML-N, which are at two poles apart at the moment. Federal government is yet to decide about the project, however, closure of the project will be difficult one for it as it will squeeze further its chances to rebuild already damaged reputation in the global financial market.

PPP-PML-Q to Wed Soon-V: Arch Rivals With Blood Feud Make Formal Announcement to Suddenly Become Allies; Alliance to Continue Beyond Present Term of Government

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: Pakistan Peoples Party under Mr. Asif Ali Zardari and PML-Q of Choudhris Gujrat have formally announced an agreement in principle to form a coalition government and a political cooperation for next general elections.

According to the official press release issued today by Presidential spokesman, a meeting was held in the Presidency Sunday night between leaders of the PPP and PML-Q, which was participated by Choudhry Shujaat Hussain, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Raja Basharat of the PML-Q and President Asif Ali Zardari Co-Chairman PPP, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Raja Pervez Ashraf and Spokesperson Farhatullah Babar from the PPP side.

Briefing media persons, the Spokesperson said that the meeting took place in the context of the on going dialogue between the two parties aimed at the political re-alignment and strengthening the reconciliation process to address various issues confronting the country in an atmosphere of political stability, mutual tolerance and accommodation.

The two parties agreed to work together and cooperate for strengthening democracy, ensuring electoral reforms, reforms in FATA, creation of new provinces especially in Southern Punjab (Siraiki) and Hazara, subject to consultations with the people and approval of the stakeholders including the appropriate amendments to the Constitution for this purpose. Farhatullah Babar said that the two parties agreed to cooperate in a number of areas of concern to the people including the economic uplift, controlling inflation, issues related to power shortage, transparency and accountability and improvement in the law and order situation in the country.

PPP-PML-Q delegations meet: file photo from internet

Following the agreement in principle, the PML-Q agreed to form coalition government with the PPP in the center headed by the PPP Prime Minister. The two parties also agreed to cooperate in the next elections, which will be held in accordance with the Constitution, he said.

The two parties rejected any change in the government except through the mechanism of free, fair and transparent elections as laid down in the Constitution.

On the other hand, sources in the power structure are of the view that despite announcement of the cooperation by the two sides, the mixing of hearts and minds of the two parties once having strong rivalry will be quite difficult and a sizeable number of old and loyal PPP leaders and workers may revolt against the decision of Mr. Zardari. They think Mian Raza Rabbani and Shah Mehmood Qureshi may cash in the situation in the near future.

The PPP leaders having reservations against the agreement with Q league opined that a person like Pervaiz Elahi who was nominated by BB herself before her brutal murder will become all powerful Deputy Prime Minister and will run a separate cabinet within the present cabinet of Yusuf Raza Gilani.

Nominating Pervaiz Elahi as deputy PM or the senior minister will give a negative message to the party workers and the democratic forces, said Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the latest dissident of the party.

Ghazanfar Gul, a traditional rival of Choudhris in the Gujrat politics, has raised another strong voice against the alliance. He is not ready to eat the cake that is being baked by the Shujaat family. ‘We have been opposing Choudhris in Gujrat and elsewhere in Punjab even at Union Council level and now besides reaching an alliance with them, Pervaiz Elahi who was nominated in murder by BB herself, is being tipped as future Deputy Prime Minister. How could we accept them in the government and ask our workers to support them’, he questioned.

Notwithstanding any opposition and the criticism, the alliance is announced, as no government would commit suicide on the eve of the budget, and thus PPP in the power has a compulsion to join hands with Q League on the terms dictated by the former “Qatil” (murderer) League.

The nitty-gritty has been finalized for the alliance, and oath taking can be arranged any time from now onwards, said a PPP source adding that next tow days are quite important for cabinet extension and a revolt in the PPP.

PPP-PML-Q to Wed Soon – IV: Arch Rivals Agree on Details! Intelligence Chief Ensure the Deal? Finally Faisal Saleh Hayat Shakes Hand With Zardari; Both Parties to Sign a CoD; PML-N’s Counter Moves to End Siege in Punjab

Zardari ensures second term! 

By Aijaz Ahmed

The political landscape of the country is going to be altered soon as the PPP and PML-Q have finally reached a deal with the blessings of the chief of the country’s top spy agency with a Lahore based business tycoon and a top builder of the country being one of the guarantors!

Observers believe that the ‘deal’ will certainly bring political stability in the country, which will ultimately restore the trust of the business and the investors. However, they also believe the deal will make way for change in Punjab’s political landscape as well.

The umpteenth ‘political wonder’ was finalized late Thursday night at presidency where Ch. Shujaat and Pervaiz Elahi along with few colleagues had a formal meeting and dinner with President who also happens to be Co-Chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

 The new element of the meeting whispered by sources at the Pakistan’s Capital Hill was an inventory list from the Presidency side. Sources are ready to bear all burden of the list that is being revealed and according to them the ISI Chief General Ahmed Shuja Pasha was the strongest witness and a wheeler-dealer of the agreement.

Details of the agreement are the same, which Indus Herald has already revealed with one minor addition that Ch. Pervaiz Elahi will be appointed deputy prime minister and an amendment to this affect will be made accordingly. The top builder of the country and Chief of Bahria Town, Malik Riaz was guarantor from the Presidency side while Lahore based business tycoon Ch. Siddique was present as a guarantor from Q league side, sources added.

Although, the deal in itself is being considered as yet another political achievement of Mr. Zardari even in the worst political situation, the real achievement he secured in the deal is second Presidential term for him. PML-Q has agreed to support his candidature in the next presidential elections at completion of the current term and the move is fully backed by present military leadership including the ISI chief, sources added.

‘The situation in the country needs continuity at top level, and also a person who understands army point of view beside having a backing from Europe and also from a strong US lobby is suitable’, sources say adding that he (Zardari) is the one who refuses to completely bow down to US demands in the present situation and that has created and strengthened mutual trust between the Pak Army and President Zardari. Army wants him to stay for another five years and thus the demand was made part of the agreement at the last minute, and was ensured to be agreed by ISI Chief, sources claimed.

Some of the points included in the deal indicate the reason why UK had interest in the alliance, and thus the efforts made by them have succeeded, sources also observed.

In the second round of the political parlays and to further discuss some minor details of the deal, Ch Shujaat had another meeting with President after Jumma Prayers at the Presidency and this time Faisal Saleh Hayat, a former PPP stalwart and presently Parliamentary leader of the party in National Assembly replaced Pervaiz Elahi to discuss his own grievances and reservations with the president.

Confirming the meeting, Farhat Ullah Babar, the presidential spokesman observed that ‘current political situation of the country was discussed during the meeting. The meeting was held in the context of over all political reconciliation in the country and realignment of political forces. Such meetings will also take place in the future’, he added.

Giving the actual context of the meeting, the sources and the witnesses of the meeting observed that the peer from Jhang, a remote and less developed district between the central and southern Punjab had reservations against his former party colleague for certain personal and other reasons. Both former colleagues and rivals had a warm handshake and held detailed discussion on his reservations. Both were at ease and in friendly mood when the meeting ended sources observed. Mr. Hayat was assured that PPP would not field Begum Abida Hussain against him as a candidate, while he will not pursue his case on rental power and other energy issues in return, sources confided.

Although, both the parties have agreed to enter in a marriage of convenience they still harbor mutual mistrust and have formed committees to keep a vigilant eye on each other.

The way, PPP handled Nawaz Sharif and put him in the political isolation has made the PML-Q think twice and Choudhris could not have blind trust in Mr. Zardari. Thus they insisted to sign a formal agreement on the pattern of charter of democracy (CoD) said a PML-Q leader. The charter will be signed in front of the national media, he added

As obvious, PML-N feels heat from the new alliance, as its government in Punjab may become a casualty. The besieged PML-N in its bid to end the political isolation has embarked on a new game plan. The PML-N just before the deal is being signed rushed to the nationalist political parties of Sindh having strong rivalries with the PPP. The PML-N delegation led by Zulfiqar Khosa, a Sardar from Dera Ghazi Khan had political deliberations with Mumtaz Bhutto, the famous talented cousin of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The younger Bhutto left Begum Nusrat Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto Shaheed alone just few days after ZAB was hanged till death by military dictator Zia.

Ever since, BB was martyred at Liaquat Bagh, Rawalpindi, Mumtaz Ali Bhutto is trying to become his political and legal heir. He warmly welcomed Punjab’s leadership and assured full support. ‘We will support every political party struggling to make Pakistan stronger and prosperous’, he observed after the meeting.

Political observers are taking PML-N’s move a desperate attempt to teach a strong lesson to former ally and a partner in the Charter of Democracy in its political strong hold and power base, the Sindh province. However, they are not sure that the move will be taken as a wise and a sharp one by Sindhi voters, as they have already discarded Junior Bhutto many times, they believe.

News Byte:

In yet another political move the PML-N has formally demanded for a fresh political mandate in the shape of mid term elections. Confirming what Indus Herald had already revealed, Mian Nawaz Sharif while talking to a TV Anchorperson refreshed his demand. He said President Zardari had called him twice since he underwent heart surgery. He said he told Mr. Zardari that a fresh mandate in the shape of mid term or general national elections was the only way forward to fight the challenges being faced by the country. Mr. Zardari in return was of the view that the government shall complete its tenure, he maintained.

Nawaz Sharif was also skeptical of the role of military establishment and ISI in the national affairs. ‘I know, the government in the office must have powers to take decisions on the important issues. But as of now, major decisions on the matters related to the foreign policy, war on terror and issues like that of Raymond Davis are being taken by the military top brass, and not by the political government’, he added.