Army Gives Clear Deadline to Settle Karachi Issue

By Aijaz Ahmed

IH Exclusive Report

The cat seems to have finally come out of the bag after dilly-dallying and procrastination of about three months as military top brass has issued a clear cut deadline to the struggling and fragile political government both in the center and the province to settle Karachi issue by 30^th October, sources in the power corridors have revealed with complete confidence and authority.

Zardari-Kayani meeting, a file photo

This scribe saw fear on the faces of many in the ruling structure, and heard certain whispers in the parliament lobbies and pathways of other buildings on the power map of Islamabad ever since the military spokesperson issued a statement on Karachi issue in very awkward manner that put already weak government under further pressure. The fear appeared to have increased manifold the day Army Chief had a detailed meeting with president Asif Ali Zardari at the Capital Hill of Islamabad.

The follow up event, which was none other than the corps commanders’ meeting, was an additional factor due to its unusual end as no formal statement was issued against the normal practice for the last so many years. The footage issued by ISPR was also evident of the fact that the military top commanders were looking grim and worried over the situation of Karachi. The military hierarchy seemed to be under pressure more so as a large number of the common Pakistanis and almost all analysts of high stature consider army leadership responsible for the situation due to its clear-cut support for MQM, a creation of General Zia ul Haq.

Corps commanders' meeting, a file phot

 The latest deterioration in the situation in Karachi appeared to be due to the multiple factors with the political interests of MQM remaining at the top. The worsening situation has alarmed every one as the situation strengthened fears about the very survival of Pakistan. Many among the political forces, traders, and even liberal intellectuals who have been posturing neutrality are very much disappointed in the present political dispensation and have demanded the deployment of Army under Article 245 of the Constitution.

Only two rival political parties, PPP and PML-N were still resisting army action due to certain reasons. However army was looking reluctant to accept the responsibility, but at the later stage the thinking appeared to have changed and an indication of will was given by Army Chief himself few days back. In this scenario the army chief had a one to one meeting with the president. The insiders having close relations with both presidency and the GHQ are of the view that the army chief has conveyed sentiments of his colleagues in the army to the civilian government. Sources from both sides confided that the October 30th has been given as deadline with a clear-cut message that ‘if the situation does not improve and issues are not addressed then we will address Karachi issue in our own way’. The message, according to the sources, has spread fear among the top party leadership as this is not only a message for an action in Karachi, but also an indication of distrust over the competence and abilities of the civilian government to deal with the situations, sources maintained. The action will not remain confined to Karachi only, the government at center and the provinces will be sent back home was the actual message between the lines, sources added.

Delivery of the message to the president indicates another fact that the military leadership considered him an appropriate person for delivery of the message as he was the supreme commander of the armed forces and leader of the main ruling party. In other words they don’t have a faith in the prime minister!

President after the meeting has also took strong exception of the developing scenario and the message to Nawaz Sharif was in view of the said meeting, sources maintained adding that he also has conveyed to his party men to use all their abilities to eradicate the menace of terrorism, gang war and target killings from Karachi. His trip to London may be seen in the same light as he may hold a meeting there with the head of the government’s estranged coalition partner, MQM.

Nawaz Answered Government’s SOS & Rushed Back to the Country; Osama’s Death & Civil-Military Row; Who Asked Mark Siegel to Publish Write Up by Zardari?

(This was published on May 12th. Due to some problem with the blog, it has been re-posted.) 
By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: The May 2 Abbottabad operation, which resulted in the discovery and murder of world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden at the hands of US Navy SEALs has brought the civil-military relationship in Pakistan to a new low. The mistrust between the two has increased manifold. It is feared that the imbroglio may end up in the pack up of another democratic dispensation.

Observers are unanimous that the country’s civilian leadership was stunned at the news and couldn’t respond quickly to it but they are really surprised at the response or the lack of it by the military leadership. They feel that the military hierarchy’s behavior was quite perplexing. They were remarkably silent and seemed quite oblivious in the first few days after the US operation as if nothing had happened. Later they mishandled the issue in the media and attempted to undermine the political leadership. That raises concerns of the people about junta’s intentions towards the democratic government.

Sources in the power corridors have confided to this scribe that the civilian leadership is taking many questions into account so as to regroup and formulate a counter strategy. Every single move by the army chief and other military top men is being minutely watched and analyzed. The civilian leadership is quite unhappy over the recent statement of top ranking military leadership regarding the government in its post Osama briefing to media and anchorpersons. The address of Army Chief General Kayani to Garrison Officers at three top cantonments has also caused concern amongst the civilian leadership through which an impression was given that the civilians are ineffective and it is they who are making damage control efforts despite a huge understanding on the issue between the President, Prime Minister and the Army Chief, sources maintained.

The civilian leadership sincerely intends to control the damage but for many reasons it is clueless and directionless, sources observed adding that every effort of independent inquiry was thwarted and blocked by the military, thus an inquiry under Adjutant General has been constituted. How come a serving subordinate will be able to conduct an independent inquiry against his immediate bosses, asked a sitting minister however adding that everybody will have to wait for the outcome of the inquiry being conducted by army itself.

On the other hand civilians are trying to get answers of many questions including the one that whether or not they have been ditched by the intelligence networks. The people also want an answer to the question if OBL’s presence in Abbottabad was in the knowledge of the relevant agencies and military leadership.

Meanwhile, sources observed that a sizeable number of the civilians seriously believed that they have been ditched. A serious question is being raised in view of the recent statements by some neighbors pointing out that when they heard the blast after the helicopter crash, they tried to approach OBL’s compound but they were stopped by some guards speaking Urdu.

These statements, in view of some sources, clearly indicate that an earlier report carried by Indus Herald that some soldiers were provided for outer cordon was correct. This also indicates that a section of Pakistani establishment knew about a US strike, but they might not be privy to the details of the proceedings.

A section of media and politicians are also looking for an answer to the question that if the operation was done in total dark and without a prior information of Pakistan, then how come the people who have been arrested after the operation from the compound did not escape although they got at least 15 minutes before the arrival of any Pakistani security personnel? Hamza bin Laden is believed to have taken the advantage of the time gap and ran away from the scene as reported by the British media is quite a good evidence in support of the above argument.

The president and the other PPP leaders wanted an independent inquiry to be held, but they had to accept the decision by military leadership as desired by Army Chief sources said adding that the powers that be asked civilians to stay away from the damage control efforts and they will be the ones who will be responsible to take on the situation and control the damage, but the situation deteriorated with every passing day. However, the military leadership was not happy with the way some TV channels sparked debate and took them to task with strong words and allegations of incompetence and negligence.

It is also said that the president has been advised that besides the inquiry announced by the military leadership, an independent parliamentary inquiry commission with presence of opposition leader Ch. Nisar, and some of the top retired judges must be set up. However, the sources observed that the government would be packed up if such an inquiry were established. It is also believed that the president is willing to set up such an inquiry with Army Chief and other military leadership on board.

Meanwhile, a section of media is probing an allegation that the officers in KPK were asked not to leave their station and stay in before the operation and all mobile phones of the uniformed officers were blocked on May 01. However this story has not been confirmed by any reliable source.

On the other hand, sources in the PML-N have confided to this scribe that Mian Nawaz Sharif responded to a May-Day call by the government through unconventional means and rushed to Pakistan. The government wanted to block Ch. Nisar’s cynical criticism. Mian Nawaz Sharif on the first day of his top leadership meeting strongly supported the idea of a demand of resignation of both Army Chief and the ISI Chief, a demand that didn’t get much response earlier.  He according to the sources has assured the PPP that any attempt to subvert the Constitution and dislodge the civilian rule will be resisted with full force. At a press conference after the two-day PML-N meeting Mian Nawaz Sharif rejected the inquiry set up by military and demanded a Judicial Commission to look in the matter. He severely criticized the military establishment.

An interesting information has also come from the sources at the presidency that an internal inquiry is being conducted to identify the person who asked PPP’s lobbyist Mark Siegel to publish an article in the name of President Zardari, praising Osama’s death just few hours after the killing. The sources claim that the president didn’t write that good English. The sources say the president did not write the article in the Washington Post but he is in a fix and could not remove Mr. Siegel because of his previous support.

President, according to sources is also not happy with the statement of COAS regarding his advice to the government for calling a joint in-camera sitting of both the houses of the parliament, but he is waiting for the outcome and briefing points to the legislators before moving further, sources maintain.      

Pakistan’s Defense Needs Protection! Own Policies Make Defense Establishment Insecure!

By Aijaz Ahmed

Military Headquarters around the world are considered to be the symbol of their military might.  These power centers particularly in societies like ours, which remains in search of strategic depth and happens to be the ‘security state’, becomes more significant as it plays the role of the saviors as well as masters of the all policies. The bloody civilians whenever put in the power remain subservient to the military leadership be it is Pakistan, Thailand, Egypt or any other such state.

Pakistan has further significance and unique situation from its inception, because from the day one it entangled in war like situation with India, and for last thirty years it has been searching strategic depth in its West, thus a nexus has developed between the military Establishment and the civilian jihadi brigades in the name of Afghan Jihad, and war in the name of Kashmir, with the GHQ becoming a source of inspiration and support for such outfits taking the role of a policy framer, which normally is the domain of the elected parliament.

Also the nexus, developed between the jihadis, a section of politicians, traders and industrialists, demanded more orthodox approach for the security of the military installations and headquarters of the corps, the air force, the navy and the intelligence establishments and their buildings have been put on stake.

Terrorists attacked GHQ in the center of large city, Rawalpindi in October, 2009

The brazen attacks on GHQ in Rawalpindi in 2009 and PNS Mehran in Karachi recently in which senior and very efficient officers were killed and two PC-3 Orion aircrafts were completely destroyed have exposed how our military installations and the whole security apparatus is vulnerable. The lately developed nexus between the builders’ mafia and the commercialism in the forces has made these installations more vulnerable and further endangered them.

If one visits the area around the GHQ, he will encounter very busy markets in a radius of just one kilometer around the military headquarters. High-rise buildings are an added phenomenon around the GHQ. The next important place in military terms is ISI headquarters in Islamabad; it is situated on the busiest road of Islamabad near Aabpara. Again it is next to a high-rise building belonging to an Islamic organization, and also exposed to the certain tall buildings of blue area just in the radius of one kilometer. Naval headquarters in Islamabad was also situated at melody up till few years back, but fortunately was shifted towards Margalla Hills and thus maintaining security is bit easier.

Situation in other cities is also not different; a tall commercial plaza is built in front of Corps Commanders House in Lahore. As far as Karachi is concerned, either deliberate or an innocent mistake has been made especially at Shahrah e Faisal. Overheads have been built to ease out traffic, but all overheads have exposed very sensitive installations including the PNS Mehran.

Courtesy, STRATFOR

In addition, all cantonments at Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Quetta, Bahawalpur, Multan and other major cities are surrounded by civilian and thickly populated localities. It is noteworthy that the Lahore Cantonment was built during the British rule and at that time it was 15 miles away from the walled city.  

In the modern day world technological advancement has made such buildings of very high significance just one hand away from the terrorist organizations, says Munir Baloch, senior writer and analyst. These buildings and military installations are under serious threat and thus emergency steps are needed to shift them at secure place, he added.

It is to remind that the Ayub Khan Government planned sifting of GHQ at Sector D-11 and E-10. The first Bhutto government marked 2400 acres of land at D-11 and 870 acres at E-10 and an initial report was prepared in 1987 to construct GHQ, JSHQ, and defense Ministry at the marked land. This project also included construction of residence, schools and other facilities for 17,000 employees of these organizations.

General Musharraf in 2004 planed to start construction of proposed buildings and facilities which was to be completed in 2007, but civil society, political parties including PPP, PMLN, ANP, MMA and MQM raised strong voice against this project in view of the financial crisis, thus the project was delayed and lately was cancelled by General Kayani.

Similarly Admiral Yastoor ul Haq planned to build a naval port at Ormara Balochistan, as present Karachi port and Port Qasim are exposed to commercial traffic and are adjacent to the city of Karachi. The project was delayed due to unknown reasons. In 2007, Pak Navy made a request to Balochistan government for purchase of 11,000 acres of land in Koh e Imam near Turbat airport, acting on which the provincial government through its order No 14/LU-2007, 10,095 acres of land was handed over to the Navy. Another 2500 acres of land was also acquired in Tehsil Dasht of District Kaich against relatively high price, but still navy is anchored around Shahrah e Faisal and Karsaz.

The situation Pakistan is passing through and in view of the war on terror, the sensitive military and intelligence installations need to be shifted to safer places away from population centers. This will also help in reducing threats to the civilian population around them at present.