Another US-Saudi Intervention in Pakistan; Threatens the Civilian Setup, Coerces Military Establishment

Pakistan is an unfortunate country as it has not only been prone to various calamities and disasters, but also throughout its history, it has remained battlefield for the international players. It is also a country that always remained under pressure from Saudi Arabia in the name of Muslim Ummah and China in the name of the evergreen friendship with heavy cost to Pakistan in the terms of industry, economy and trade of certain goods. However, it happens to be the biggest victim of US-Saudi nexus, which seems active once again and no wonder to dislodge political dispensation as in the past.

By Aijaz Ahmed

Former Afghanistan president, Burhanuddin Rabbani

Islamabad: US-Pakistan relations have further strained in the aftermath of the assassination of ex-Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani as the United States has accused Pakistan of it’s involvement in the terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan and Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI’s links with Haqqani network in Pakistan.

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta & US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen

As reported in the press, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has threatened to take “operational steps” against Pakistan while the US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen has accused the ISI of it’s involvement in the attack on the US Embassy in Kabul.

The developments have paved the way for another US intervention in Pakistan’s affairs as diplomatic sources have confided to this correspondent that the US administration has threatened to dislodge the civilian setup in Pakistan. According to the sources, the US administration wants Khakis at the helm of the affairs again and wants to get rid of the political government, which is not only scared of the disciplined khakis but also the undisciplined politicians having strong voice in the parliament and media. The US administration also wants to get rid of the vibrant parliament that for the first time in the history of this country took up such critical and serious issues like the war on terror and the killing of Osama bin Laden in a secret operation by a US Navy SEALS team.

Reason behind new US moves are of the multiple nature: the US administration wants an action against Haqqani group in Afghanistan while Pakistan considers this group indispensable for peace in Afghanistan as well as in the bordering tribal belt of Pakistan. A young Haqqani was preaching peace in Mohmand Agency till few months back with the blessings of the powers that be. The role that Haqqani group can play also suggests that it is the group that can foil the designs of anti Pakistan forces, and it is the group that has significant presence and influence in Pushtoon speaking Afghanistan specially the part adjacent to the Tribal belt right from South Waziristan to Bajaur Agency and Pakistan sees the influence of the group as a tool for positive dialogue with Taliban. Perhaps this is the biggest mistake that Pakistan is making and both Army and civilians seems on one page on the issue. The Unites States considers it as a fault of the civilian administration but at the same time, it blames ISI for the quagmire.

The sources in the diplomatic circles are confident that the United States has adopted two pronged strategy: on one hand it is giving threats of waging war against Pakistan on its reported links with the Haqqani group and other Taliban groups. It has also sent a critical message through Afghanistan president Hamid Karazai, which was delivered to Prime minister Gilani today when he paid a brief visit to Kabul to condole the death of Ustad Rabbani who was killed in a suicidal attack. The message was not soft, rather it contained some hidden threat, sources maintained and that is why Prime Minister rushed to Karachi direct from Kabul to discuss with the president the possible future scenario, they confided. It is considered as the pressure and fresh moves against the elected government and the parliament.

On the other hand the US is adopting a policy to maintain a bit soft corner for the Army, as it can be a valuable partner in future scenario. The army because of its training, discipline, and links with certain groups in and outside Pakistan is considered indispensable, and perhaps it is true and has been proved as a fact many times in the past.

However, the most important part of the strategy seems the point number one, i.e., putting more pressure on the civilian government and getting rid of the democracy, the parliament and the ruling politicians, and here comes the role of US stooges, unfortunately hailing from the Muslim world. And this time according to the sources, Saudi Arabia is playing the role of a stooge once gain to serve the United States and its interests and against Pakistan. Bahrain is still believed to be a part of the game.

It will be worth mentioning here that it was the same “bad” civilian government that provided human resource to Bahrain to control a pro democracy movement by Shiite Muslims near Saudi border, which turned into a deadly violence because of a firing incident. Pakistan also mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran just few months ago by the Zardari government. The savior of the Muslim Ummah is endangering the same Zardari government, along with the parliament, sources said.

Ex-military dictator Musharraf in the news again

Pervez Musharraf is again in the game too. The Saudis have interviewed him few weeks back and assured him of a better role in Pakistan in near future. The former military dictator is being assured full protection on his already announced return to Pakistan by 23^rd March next year. The only hurdle for his return would have been Mian Nawaz Sharif and Saudis are assuring him that Nawaz will not create problems for him. Nawaz will give a positive response or not, only time holds the answer, but sources are quite sure that the plan is underway to get rid of the present regime and the parliament. It can not be predicted whether the move will be successful or not, but the recent visits of Army Chief to Karachi, having meetings with Industrialists and making a Rangers deployment plan, the recent concerns on Karachi situation and a deadline for the government to solve the Karachi problem shall also be analyzed in the view of the above mentioned developments, but nobody in the parliament at this stage will have the courage ask a question from the COAS that under which law he intervened in civilian government’s ambit and held meetings on law and order issue which is purely a civilian matter. The law of the land and the Constitution clearly prohibits him for holding such meetings. 

Nawaz Answered Government’s SOS & Rushed Back to the Country; Osama’s Death & Civil-Military Row; Who Asked Mark Siegel to Publish Write Up by Zardari?

(This was published on May 12th. Due to some problem with the blog, it has been re-posted.) 
By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: The May 2 Abbottabad operation, which resulted in the discovery and murder of world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden at the hands of US Navy SEALs has brought the civil-military relationship in Pakistan to a new low. The mistrust between the two has increased manifold. It is feared that the imbroglio may end up in the pack up of another democratic dispensation.

Observers are unanimous that the country’s civilian leadership was stunned at the news and couldn’t respond quickly to it but they are really surprised at the response or the lack of it by the military leadership. They feel that the military hierarchy’s behavior was quite perplexing. They were remarkably silent and seemed quite oblivious in the first few days after the US operation as if nothing had happened. Later they mishandled the issue in the media and attempted to undermine the political leadership. That raises concerns of the people about junta’s intentions towards the democratic government.

Sources in the power corridors have confided to this scribe that the civilian leadership is taking many questions into account so as to regroup and formulate a counter strategy. Every single move by the army chief and other military top men is being minutely watched and analyzed. The civilian leadership is quite unhappy over the recent statement of top ranking military leadership regarding the government in its post Osama briefing to media and anchorpersons. The address of Army Chief General Kayani to Garrison Officers at three top cantonments has also caused concern amongst the civilian leadership through which an impression was given that the civilians are ineffective and it is they who are making damage control efforts despite a huge understanding on the issue between the President, Prime Minister and the Army Chief, sources maintained.

The civilian leadership sincerely intends to control the damage but for many reasons it is clueless and directionless, sources observed adding that every effort of independent inquiry was thwarted and blocked by the military, thus an inquiry under Adjutant General has been constituted. How come a serving subordinate will be able to conduct an independent inquiry against his immediate bosses, asked a sitting minister however adding that everybody will have to wait for the outcome of the inquiry being conducted by army itself.

On the other hand civilians are trying to get answers of many questions including the one that whether or not they have been ditched by the intelligence networks. The people also want an answer to the question if OBL’s presence in Abbottabad was in the knowledge of the relevant agencies and military leadership.

Meanwhile, sources observed that a sizeable number of the civilians seriously believed that they have been ditched. A serious question is being raised in view of the recent statements by some neighbors pointing out that when they heard the blast after the helicopter crash, they tried to approach OBL’s compound but they were stopped by some guards speaking Urdu.

These statements, in view of some sources, clearly indicate that an earlier report carried by Indus Herald that some soldiers were provided for outer cordon was correct. This also indicates that a section of Pakistani establishment knew about a US strike, but they might not be privy to the details of the proceedings.

A section of media and politicians are also looking for an answer to the question that if the operation was done in total dark and without a prior information of Pakistan, then how come the people who have been arrested after the operation from the compound did not escape although they got at least 15 minutes before the arrival of any Pakistani security personnel? Hamza bin Laden is believed to have taken the advantage of the time gap and ran away from the scene as reported by the British media is quite a good evidence in support of the above argument.

The president and the other PPP leaders wanted an independent inquiry to be held, but they had to accept the decision by military leadership as desired by Army Chief sources said adding that the powers that be asked civilians to stay away from the damage control efforts and they will be the ones who will be responsible to take on the situation and control the damage, but the situation deteriorated with every passing day. However, the military leadership was not happy with the way some TV channels sparked debate and took them to task with strong words and allegations of incompetence and negligence.

It is also said that the president has been advised that besides the inquiry announced by the military leadership, an independent parliamentary inquiry commission with presence of opposition leader Ch. Nisar, and some of the top retired judges must be set up. However, the sources observed that the government would be packed up if such an inquiry were established. It is also believed that the president is willing to set up such an inquiry with Army Chief and other military leadership on board.

Meanwhile, a section of media is probing an allegation that the officers in KPK were asked not to leave their station and stay in before the operation and all mobile phones of the uniformed officers were blocked on May 01. However this story has not been confirmed by any reliable source.

On the other hand, sources in the PML-N have confided to this scribe that Mian Nawaz Sharif responded to a May-Day call by the government through unconventional means and rushed to Pakistan. The government wanted to block Ch. Nisar’s cynical criticism. Mian Nawaz Sharif on the first day of his top leadership meeting strongly supported the idea of a demand of resignation of both Army Chief and the ISI Chief, a demand that didn’t get much response earlier.  He according to the sources has assured the PPP that any attempt to subvert the Constitution and dislodge the civilian rule will be resisted with full force. At a press conference after the two-day PML-N meeting Mian Nawaz Sharif rejected the inquiry set up by military and demanded a Judicial Commission to look in the matter. He severely criticized the military establishment.

An interesting information has also come from the sources at the presidency that an internal inquiry is being conducted to identify the person who asked PPP’s lobbyist Mark Siegel to publish an article in the name of President Zardari, praising Osama’s death just few hours after the killing. The sources claim that the president didn’t write that good English. The sources say the president did not write the article in the Washington Post but he is in a fix and could not remove Mr. Siegel because of his previous support.

President, according to sources is also not happy with the statement of COAS regarding his advice to the government for calling a joint in-camera sitting of both the houses of the parliament, but he is waiting for the outcome and briefing points to the legislators before moving further, sources maintain.      

Pakistan’s Defense Needs Protection! Own Policies Make Defense Establishment Insecure!

By Aijaz Ahmed

Military Headquarters around the world are considered to be the symbol of their military might.  These power centers particularly in societies like ours, which remains in search of strategic depth and happens to be the ‘security state’, becomes more significant as it plays the role of the saviors as well as masters of the all policies. The bloody civilians whenever put in the power remain subservient to the military leadership be it is Pakistan, Thailand, Egypt or any other such state.

Pakistan has further significance and unique situation from its inception, because from the day one it entangled in war like situation with India, and for last thirty years it has been searching strategic depth in its West, thus a nexus has developed between the military Establishment and the civilian jihadi brigades in the name of Afghan Jihad, and war in the name of Kashmir, with the GHQ becoming a source of inspiration and support for such outfits taking the role of a policy framer, which normally is the domain of the elected parliament.

Also the nexus, developed between the jihadis, a section of politicians, traders and industrialists, demanded more orthodox approach for the security of the military installations and headquarters of the corps, the air force, the navy and the intelligence establishments and their buildings have been put on stake.

Terrorists attacked GHQ in the center of large city, Rawalpindi in October, 2009

The brazen attacks on GHQ in Rawalpindi in 2009 and PNS Mehran in Karachi recently in which senior and very efficient officers were killed and two PC-3 Orion aircrafts were completely destroyed have exposed how our military installations and the whole security apparatus is vulnerable. The lately developed nexus between the builders’ mafia and the commercialism in the forces has made these installations more vulnerable and further endangered them.

If one visits the area around the GHQ, he will encounter very busy markets in a radius of just one kilometer around the military headquarters. High-rise buildings are an added phenomenon around the GHQ. The next important place in military terms is ISI headquarters in Islamabad; it is situated on the busiest road of Islamabad near Aabpara. Again it is next to a high-rise building belonging to an Islamic organization, and also exposed to the certain tall buildings of blue area just in the radius of one kilometer. Naval headquarters in Islamabad was also situated at melody up till few years back, but fortunately was shifted towards Margalla Hills and thus maintaining security is bit easier.

Situation in other cities is also not different; a tall commercial plaza is built in front of Corps Commanders House in Lahore. As far as Karachi is concerned, either deliberate or an innocent mistake has been made especially at Shahrah e Faisal. Overheads have been built to ease out traffic, but all overheads have exposed very sensitive installations including the PNS Mehran.

Courtesy, STRATFOR

In addition, all cantonments at Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Quetta, Bahawalpur, Multan and other major cities are surrounded by civilian and thickly populated localities. It is noteworthy that the Lahore Cantonment was built during the British rule and at that time it was 15 miles away from the walled city.  

In the modern day world technological advancement has made such buildings of very high significance just one hand away from the terrorist organizations, says Munir Baloch, senior writer and analyst. These buildings and military installations are under serious threat and thus emergency steps are needed to shift them at secure place, he added.

It is to remind that the Ayub Khan Government planned sifting of GHQ at Sector D-11 and E-10. The first Bhutto government marked 2400 acres of land at D-11 and 870 acres at E-10 and an initial report was prepared in 1987 to construct GHQ, JSHQ, and defense Ministry at the marked land. This project also included construction of residence, schools and other facilities for 17,000 employees of these organizations.

General Musharraf in 2004 planed to start construction of proposed buildings and facilities which was to be completed in 2007, but civil society, political parties including PPP, PMLN, ANP, MMA and MQM raised strong voice against this project in view of the financial crisis, thus the project was delayed and lately was cancelled by General Kayani.

Similarly Admiral Yastoor ul Haq planned to build a naval port at Ormara Balochistan, as present Karachi port and Port Qasim are exposed to commercial traffic and are adjacent to the city of Karachi. The project was delayed due to unknown reasons. In 2007, Pak Navy made a request to Balochistan government for purchase of 11,000 acres of land in Koh e Imam near Turbat airport, acting on which the provincial government through its order No 14/LU-2007, 10,095 acres of land was handed over to the Navy. Another 2500 acres of land was also acquired in Tehsil Dasht of District Kaich against relatively high price, but still navy is anchored around Shahrah e Faisal and Karsaz.

The situation Pakistan is passing through and in view of the war on terror, the sensitive military and intelligence installations need to be shifted to safer places away from population centers. This will also help in reducing threats to the civilian population around them at present.

Attack on GHQ & Now On PNS Mehran: Alas, No One Sees the Writing On the Wall!

Attack on PNS Mehran: A Comment

PNS Mehran under attack: pic, courtesy Dawn

'Deep State', aka the 'Pakistani military establishment', created two monsters, one in the North & the other in the South to serve its twin objectives of achieving 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan and to fight the democratic & progressive forces in the country. The creators will never fight their creation as they need them for their well-known objectives but what about the people? 

Even the masses still have soft corner for the two! One of them is engaged in an open war on the state and the people while the other is engaged only in 'exercises' and 'target practice' for now testing weapons & keeping the personnel fighting fit! Wait for the day when the second monster would declare an open war from the South. Look forward to nothing else but death, destruction, murder & mayhem.

And remember, the responsibility for the eventual catastrophe will not lie only on the shoulders of the so-called military establishment. All the citizens will be equally responsible for their timidity and their silence. They are accomplices in all this.

PNS Mehran under attack: pic, courtesy Dawn