Another US-Saudi Intervention in Pakistan; Threatens the Civilian Setup, Coerces Military Establishment

Pakistan is an unfortunate country as it has not only been prone to various calamities and disasters, but also throughout its history, it has remained battlefield for the international players. It is also a country that always remained under pressure from Saudi Arabia in the name of Muslim Ummah and China in the name of the evergreen friendship with heavy cost to Pakistan in the terms of industry, economy and trade of certain goods. However, it happens to be the biggest victim of US-Saudi nexus, which seems active once again and no wonder to dislodge political dispensation as in the past.

By Aijaz Ahmed

Former Afghanistan president, Burhanuddin Rabbani

Islamabad: US-Pakistan relations have further strained in the aftermath of the assassination of ex-Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani as the United States has accused Pakistan of it’s involvement in the terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan and Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI’s links with Haqqani network in Pakistan.

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta & US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen

As reported in the press, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has threatened to take “operational steps” against Pakistan while the US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen has accused the ISI of it’s involvement in the attack on the US Embassy in Kabul.

The developments have paved the way for another US intervention in Pakistan’s affairs as diplomatic sources have confided to this correspondent that the US administration has threatened to dislodge the civilian setup in Pakistan. According to the sources, the US administration wants Khakis at the helm of the affairs again and wants to get rid of the political government, which is not only scared of the disciplined khakis but also the undisciplined politicians having strong voice in the parliament and media. The US administration also wants to get rid of the vibrant parliament that for the first time in the history of this country took up such critical and serious issues like the war on terror and the killing of Osama bin Laden in a secret operation by a US Navy SEALS team.

Reason behind new US moves are of the multiple nature: the US administration wants an action against Haqqani group in Afghanistan while Pakistan considers this group indispensable for peace in Afghanistan as well as in the bordering tribal belt of Pakistan. A young Haqqani was preaching peace in Mohmand Agency till few months back with the blessings of the powers that be. The role that Haqqani group can play also suggests that it is the group that can foil the designs of anti Pakistan forces, and it is the group that has significant presence and influence in Pushtoon speaking Afghanistan specially the part adjacent to the Tribal belt right from South Waziristan to Bajaur Agency and Pakistan sees the influence of the group as a tool for positive dialogue with Taliban. Perhaps this is the biggest mistake that Pakistan is making and both Army and civilians seems on one page on the issue. The Unites States considers it as a fault of the civilian administration but at the same time, it blames ISI for the quagmire.

The sources in the diplomatic circles are confident that the United States has adopted two pronged strategy: on one hand it is giving threats of waging war against Pakistan on its reported links with the Haqqani group and other Taliban groups. It has also sent a critical message through Afghanistan president Hamid Karazai, which was delivered to Prime minister Gilani today when he paid a brief visit to Kabul to condole the death of Ustad Rabbani who was killed in a suicidal attack. The message was not soft, rather it contained some hidden threat, sources maintained and that is why Prime Minister rushed to Karachi direct from Kabul to discuss with the president the possible future scenario, they confided. It is considered as the pressure and fresh moves against the elected government and the parliament.

On the other hand the US is adopting a policy to maintain a bit soft corner for the Army, as it can be a valuable partner in future scenario. The army because of its training, discipline, and links with certain groups in and outside Pakistan is considered indispensable, and perhaps it is true and has been proved as a fact many times in the past.

However, the most important part of the strategy seems the point number one, i.e., putting more pressure on the civilian government and getting rid of the democracy, the parliament and the ruling politicians, and here comes the role of US stooges, unfortunately hailing from the Muslim world. And this time according to the sources, Saudi Arabia is playing the role of a stooge once gain to serve the United States and its interests and against Pakistan. Bahrain is still believed to be a part of the game.

It will be worth mentioning here that it was the same “bad” civilian government that provided human resource to Bahrain to control a pro democracy movement by Shiite Muslims near Saudi border, which turned into a deadly violence because of a firing incident. Pakistan also mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran just few months ago by the Zardari government. The savior of the Muslim Ummah is endangering the same Zardari government, along with the parliament, sources said.

Ex-military dictator Musharraf in the news again

Pervez Musharraf is again in the game too. The Saudis have interviewed him few weeks back and assured him of a better role in Pakistan in near future. The former military dictator is being assured full protection on his already announced return to Pakistan by 23^rd March next year. The only hurdle for his return would have been Mian Nawaz Sharif and Saudis are assuring him that Nawaz will not create problems for him. Nawaz will give a positive response or not, only time holds the answer, but sources are quite sure that the plan is underway to get rid of the present regime and the parliament. It can not be predicted whether the move will be successful or not, but the recent visits of Army Chief to Karachi, having meetings with Industrialists and making a Rangers deployment plan, the recent concerns on Karachi situation and a deadline for the government to solve the Karachi problem shall also be analyzed in the view of the above mentioned developments, but nobody in the parliament at this stage will have the courage ask a question from the COAS that under which law he intervened in civilian government’s ambit and held meetings on law and order issue which is purely a civilian matter. The law of the land and the Constitution clearly prohibits him for holding such meetings. 

Pakistan Army to Restore Peace in Bahrain, III: Pakistan To Send 20,000 Troops To Saudi Arabia, To Cooperate in Building Saudi Nuclear Deterrence

Strategic Shift in PPP Government and Saudi Arabia Relations Emerges!

 

 By Aijaz Ahmed

Known for suicidal missions, attacks and bombings, Pakistan is believed to have reached a collective sucidal defense understanding with Saudi Arabia ostensibly ‘to secure and guard the holy land from political turmoil that may hit the country with extended influence from neighbouring Bahrain’, sources in the power corridoors have whsipered to Indus Herald in Islamabad.

The specifics of the ‘security arrangement’ are a tightly guarded secret but it is believed that the deal for the security of the oil rich holy kingdom includes sending up to 20,000 troops and recruitment of retired personnel for Saudi defense forces if Riyadh were to face an internal uprising, sources confided. Additionally, the package includes purchase of military hardware from Pakistan and intensified efforts to build Saudi nuclear deterrence for which Saudi Arabia has an infrastructure at Al-Sulayyil, south of Riyadh, a secret underground city with dozens of underground silos for missiles.

Hina Rabbani Khar

Although Junior Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar’s two day visit to Riyadh was officially described as a trip for “strengthening the existing bonds of friendship and brotherhood”, the visit was in fact meant to convey political leadership’s endorsement of the upgradation of security ties between the two countries to unprecedented levels  - an arrangement that has already been worked out at the military level.

Indeed, Saudis have always had excellent ties with Pakistan’s military top brass command at the GHQ; however, its relations with PPP leadership have never been good since the bad old days of General Zia, with whom they collaborated even after he hanged a leader like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, once darling of Saudi and other Arab Leadership.

Prior to the current spell of spasmodic proximity being espoused so eagerly by the Saudi monarchy, it always treated PPP leaders with great disdain – rather contempt. Not long ago Wikileaks had quoted King Abdullah as having mentioned party’s co-chairman and country’s president Asif Ali Zardari as a ‘rotten head’ and obstruction in the development of the country, says the Pak Foreign Policy Blog while commenting on recent developments between Pakistan’s political leadership in the office and Saudi Royal family over uprising in Bahrain.

Thus, the visit of Ms. Khar was very crucial because it came at a time when new alignments were being made in the view of the heightening cold war and the new great game in the Gulf region between Iran and Arab monarchies with the dividing line drawn in the sands of Bahrain.

Gen. Kayani

Whisperings in Islamabad’s diplomatic circuit speak of unrealistic fears in Riyadh that PPP leadership may not back the deal they had clinched with Gen Kayani & Co, so they backed up their efforts by launching Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the onetime Saudi ambassador to Washington and now the secretary-general of the Saudi National Security Council, as the additional pointman on Pakistan, who not only toured Pakistan, but was kind enough to write a follow up letter to Prime Minister Gilani “reiterating desire to further strengthen these relations in all areas of mutual interest.” Pakistan government very proudly flaunted the letter. Earlier, relations with Islamabad were mostly conducted through the intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz.

In addition to Iran, recent problems in Riyadh-Washington relations have compelled Saudis to go expedite renewed alignment with Pakistani civilian leadership, sources in power corridors and the diplomatic circles observed. As President Obama and his administration viewed Saudis with distrust as financiers of the insurgency in Afghanistan, Saudis, according to International Energy Agency, reduced oil production in mid-March at a crucial time despite an earlier promise with Washington to make up for the Libyan oil made unavailable because of NATO opperation against Col Gaddafi’s forces.

Pakistan, cognizant of the fallout at home in the shape of revived sectarian clashes, gambled to dive into the Iran-Arab cold war by siding with the Saudis because its military leadership found it to be in sync with the American strategic calculations for the region.

Washington’s security architecture for the Arab world is believed to be based on the continuation of existing monarchies in the oil rich region. And Pakistan’s strategic thinking is no different, commentes Pak Fpreign Policy Blog. To quote President Zardari: “Pakistan desires peace, security, and stability in Bahrain. Pakistan … would not like its (region`s) stability to be upset in any way. Pakistan believes that it would be dangerous for regional peace and stability if the system was destabilized one way or the other”.

So here lies the convergence of interests between Islamabad and Washington. Where Saudis are out to get military/security benefits from Pakistan, Islamabad is looking to meet its insatiable desire for easy money and cheap fuel to keep itself going and footing the bill for leaders’ shenanigans. It Would also be worth mentioning that the Indus Herald in one of its earlier stories on this subject had disclosed seome developments on revival of Pak-Saudi Defence Cooperation Agreement. The current deal shall be taken as informal revival of the agreement and part of the development, and the agreement may  formally be revived if a legal hitch comes in the way of implementation of the understanding, sources maintained

The deal may ring alarming bells in the Washington, and the reaction from White House and Pentagon would be of considerable. The United States has been uneasily watching Pak-Saudi partnership under the garb of reinvigoration of bilateral ties focussed on curbing the ‘rise of Iran backed political movement for democracy among the Shias of the Arab world through measures ranging from deployment of  up to 20,000 Pakistani regular troops in Saudi Arabia and building of Riyadh’s nuclear deterrence capacity.

The issue was part of deliberations with Pakistan Army during the recently concluded visit of US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen to islamabad, sources revealed; however, they are tight lipped over the outcome of the deliberation on the issue between General Kiyani and Mr. Mullen.

US dilemma is that it wouldn’t like to see Saudi Arabia becoming another nuclear nightmare but at the same time it can’t do much other than turning a blind eye to Pakistan’s support to the Saudi royal family increasingly worried not only about Iran dominating the region, but also fretful about losing power, PFP comments. Remember King Abdullah is so upset about the prospects of threats to the monarchy that he shortened his recuperation rest after two surgeries against doctors’ advice and rushed back home to deal with the crisis.

THE NUCLEAR BOMB:

It may be recalled that it was reported in international press including the Washington Times in October 2003 that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had entered a secret agreement on "nuclear cooperation" providing Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons technology in return for access to cheap oil for Pakistan.

In March 2006, the German magazine Cicero reported that Saudi Arabia had since 2003 received assistance from Pakistan to acquire nuclear missiles and warheads.

Saudi defector Muhammad Khilewi, once served as Saudi deputy chief of mission at the UN, had also few years back disclosed documents that Riyadh funded Pakistan’s nuclear program on the condition that if Saudi Arabia felt threatened at any time it can benefit from Pakistani arsenal.

And according to a testimony of Israeli intelligence chief before Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Riyadh has been asking Pakistan to provide nuclear war heads for its missiles.

Probably there wouldn’t be a more crucial time than now to ask Pakistan for the promised ‘pay back’.

Saudi defense infrastructure