Mystery Still Surrounds the Death of Terrorism Mastermind: Hard Days Ahead for Pakistan; Security Establishment Under Strong Attack; Civil Government Comes to Its Rescue; Osamas’ Wife Shifted to Rawalpindi for Treatment; Daughters Are Under Protective Custody, But Where?

By Aijaz Ahmed:

President Obama and his security team watching the operation in real time from the White House

Islamabad: The news of  the ‘Operation Get Osama’ and the death of the terrorist mastermind and chief of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden has sent tremors throughout the country. Islamabad, the calm and quite capital of Pakistan, seems under a complete shock with mystifying meetings, phone calls and tight lips of the top brass, making the situation more difficult & incomprehensible for the observers and diplomatic commentators.

The operation was not a small incident; it was admittedly the biggest development of international importance since 9/11 terrorist attack when twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York were smashed by hijacked jet planes reportedly controlled by Al-Qaeda operatives.

Despite the global implications of the bombshell news, and the ensuing debate at all levels in and outside Pakistan, dilemma of the Pakistani media is the fact that although the operation took place on Pakistani soil, even the minor details of the action, and how the world’s most wanted man was spotted are coming from Washington through US media. 'We are getting the only truth that the United States wants to reveal', said local journalists gathered to cover tri-lateral meeting between Pakistan, Afghanistan and United States.

The only success the Pakistani media achieved during last twenty-four hours was the address of the owner of the mansion like house that Osama was using as his hideout. Both Arshad and his brother Tariq are supposed to be either killed or arrested, but no one except the US security establishment is in a position to reveal their whereabouts.

US Counterterrorism adviser John Brennan: "The minutes passed like days"

 As our readers would be fully aware, Indus Herald has already disclosed most of the information on the operation in its detailed story yesterday. Further details available to us suggest that the two daughters of OBL received some injuries, along with few other members of the family and some guards. Sources have disclosed that initially they received medical aid at Ayub Medical Complex, Abbottabad. The local hospital was completely sealed and no single civilian individual was even allowed to enter during the first part of the day, but later they were shifted to some unknown place due to security concerns, sources confided. The decision was solely taken because of the fears of backlash as information was reportedly leaked to terrorist outfits.

It is also believed that the woman used as human shield and killed was a family member of Arshad and Tariq, and she was not wife of OBL. The second lady who received injuries on left leg has been shifted to Rawalpindi for further investigations and is with Pakistani security agencies, the sources claimed. Passport of the said lady has also been recovered along with damaged computers and a laptop and few light weapons. 

The passport details indicate her name as Amal Ahmed bint e Abdul-Fatah, besides her credentials according to which she is wife of OBL and was born on 27^th March 1982. But nobody knows how serious her injuries are and what her condition is now, but it is believed that she is out of danger. It is also said that Ibrahim, son of OBL was among those who were killed in the operation conducted by 79 US Navy SEALs who arrived in four helicopters from Jalalabad. Another lady, supposedly a doctor of Pakistani origin is also injured and arrested in the operation.

Media has also reported about the will of OBL. According to the reported will, OBL has asked his children not to join Al-Qaeda and advised all wives not to marry again.

As far as keeping Pakistan in complete dark about the operation is concerned, it is confirmed that leads were actually provided by Pakistan. It intercepted a telephonic call last year as reported by IH. It is also reconfirmed by the sources that a cover was also provided by Pakistani commandos, but defense sources believe that the secrecy was maintained in the operation proceedings and nobody knew about what is going on and who the Navy SEALs are hunting for. The CIA Chief also indicated that the secrecy was maintained because of the fear that OBL will be tipped off if the intelligence is shared with Pakistan. The US embassy sources while confirming it quoted at least five incidents in the recent past when the shared information was leaked at lower level and the target succeeded to escape.

Meanwhile, a debate regarding the security of the nuclear assets and the performance security apparatus has started in the media. Everybody participating in the debate fears that even India can attack and Pakistan’s defense system may not be able to respond in such a case. “How can I trust such security establishment and intelligence agencies who do not know that such a high value target is residing under its nose” said Nazir Naji, leading columnist and added that how would they be able to protect Pakistan’s nuclear program.

The security establishment is still feeling the aftershocks. The COAS General Kayani hurriedly called off his scheduled Brussels visit and sources confided that the military leadership is amazed at the pressure being exerted by the local media supposedly controlled by the security establishment. Not all but certain anchors of leading TV Channels reportedly having links with one or the other agency are busy in the debate against security establishment that may lead towards worsening relations between the two leading spy agencies, sources believe. According to sources, General Kayani and General Pasha, the ISI head had another meeting with President Zardari and PM Gilani, before PM’s departure to France.

The civilian leadership is said to have expressed dismay over the situation arising from the operation.  However, the policy of maintaining complete silence was drawn with the consultation of Military and civilian leadership, but demand for complete truth is getting stronger with every passing hour. The military leadership after Kargil once again seems to be on the back foot as compared to the civilian leadership as nobody is ready to trust them any more under the current circumstances or without a credible briefing by the ISPR with complete details on the issue.

Meanwhile, on the clear directives of President Zardari, Foreign Office has issued a jointly prepared statement with some strong words to control the damage done so far, but the hawkish media doesn't seem to be satisfied. The statement issued by the government through FO states:

   

·        The Government of Pakistan recognizes that the death of Osama bin Ladin is an important milestone in fight against terrorism and that the Government of Pakistan and its state institutions have been making serious efforts to bring him to justice.

·        However, the Government of Pakistan categorically denies the media reports suggesting that its leadership, civil as well as military, had any prior knowledge of the US operation against Osama bin Ladin carried out in the early hours of 2nd May 2011.

·        Abbottabad and the surrounding areas have been under sharp focus of intelligence agencies since 2003 resulting in highly technical operation by ISI, which led to the arrest of high value Al Qaeda target in 2004. As far as the target compound is concerned, ISI had been sharing information with CIA and other friendly intelligence agencies since 2009. The intelligence flow indicating some foreigners in the surroundings of Abbottabad continued till mid April 2011.   It is important to highlight that taking advantage of much superior technological assets, CIA exploited the intelligence leads given by us to identify and reach Osama bin Ladin, a fact also acknowledged by the US President and Secretary of State, in their statements. It is also important to mention that CIA and some other friendly intelligence agencies have benefited a great deal from the intelligence provided by ISI. ISI’s own achievements against Al Qaeda and in War on Terror are more than any other intelligence agency in the World.

·        Reports about US helicopters taking off from Ghazi Airbase are absolutely false and incorrect. Neither any base or facility inside Pakistan was used by the US Forces, nor Pakistan Army provided any operational or logistic assistance to these operations conducted by the US Forces.  US helicopters entered Pakistani airspace making use of blind spots in the radar coverage due to hilly terrain. US helicopters’ undetected flight into Pakistan was also facilitated by the mountainous terrain, efficacious use of latest technology and ‘nap of the earth’ flying techniques. It may not be realistic to draw an analogy between this undefended civilian area and some military / security installations which have elaborate local defense arrangements.

·        On receipt of information regarding the incident, PAF scrambled its jets within minutes. This has been corroborated by the White House Advisor Mr. John Brennan who while replying to a question said, “We didn’t contact the Pakistanis until after all of our people, all of our aircraft were out of Pakistani airspace. At the time, the Pakistanis were reacting to an incident that they knew was taking place in Abbottabad. Therefore, they were scrambling some of their assets. Clearly, we were concerned that if the Pakistanis decided to scramble jets or whatever else, they didn’t know who were on those jets. They had no idea about who might have been on there, whether it be US or somebody else. So, we were watching and making sure that our people and our aircraft were able to get out of Pakistani airspace. And thankfully, there was no engagement with Pakistani forces. This operation was designed to minimize the prospects, the chances of engagement with Pakistani forces. It was done very well, and thankfully no Pakistani forces were engaged and there were no other individuals who were killed aside from those on the compound.”

·        There has been a lot of discussion about the nature of the targeted compound, particularly its high walls and its vicinity to the areas housing Pakistan Army elements. It needs to be appreciated that many houses occupied by the affectees of operations in FATA / KPK, have high boundary walls, in line with their culture of privacy and security. Houses with such layout and structural details are not a rarity.

·        Questions have also been asked about the whereabouts of the family members of Osama bin Ladin. They are all in safe hands and being looked after in accordance with law. Some of them needing medical care are under treatment in the best possible facilities. As per policy, they will be handed over to their countries of origin.

·        Notwithstanding the above, the Government of Pakistan expresses its deep concerns and reservations on the manner in which the Government of the United States carried out this operation without prior information or authorization from the Government of Pakistan.

·        This event of unauthorized unilateral action cannot be taken as a rule. The Government of Pakistan further affirms that such an event shall not serve as a future precedent for any state, including the US. Such actions undermine cooperation and may also sometime constitute threat to international peace and security. 

·        Pakistan, being mindful of its international obligations, has been extending full and proper cooperation on all counter terrorism efforts including exchange of information and intelligence. Pursuant to such cooperation, Pakistan had arrested several high profile terrorists.

·        The Government of Pakistan and its Armed Forces consider support of the people of Pakistan to be its mainstay and actual strength. Any actions contrary to their aspirations, therefore, run against the very basis on which the edifice of national defense and security is based. Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies have played a pivotal role in breaking the back of Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in Pakistan as well as around the World. Most of the successes achieved by the US and some other friendly countries have been the result of effective intelligence cooperation and extremely useful military support by Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan and its security forces have resolved to continue their fight against terrorism till people of Pakistan can live in peace and security.

Despite such a lengthy statement by the foreign Office, it is believed that President Zardari will himself come with some damage control and will take nation into confidence in one way or the other. He according to the sources was advised to sack some of the top military and intelligence officials, but he categorically refused saying that he will not let anybody damage national security institutions.

Map of the area. Photos, courtesy internet

Death of Osama & Threats to Pakistan; US Operation Raises Questions on Country’s Security Apparatus; Top Brass Holds Somber Meetings

By Aijaz Ahmed

Courtesy: AFP

Islamabad: Foreign Office, the ISPR (Pakistan military’s press department, Inter Services Press Relations), other government spokesmen remained in a permanent state of denial whenever pressed on the question of the whereabouts of the most wanted man on the face of earth, Osama bin Laden, but he was finally caught and killed in a late-night targeted surgical operation that lasted for just 40 minutes in Abbottabad, the posh cantonment city of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province. 

The available details suggests that despite complete intelligence sharing with United States, the operation proceedings were kept strictly secret and were shared with the political leadership of the country that is paying huge sacrifices for the war on terror, even though the military leadership has always been in limelight.

I talked to many people in Abbottabad, including the journalists, and the details available suggest that the house raided last night by US commandos was just 2 kilometers away from Pakistan’s premier Kakul Military Academy. The raided house in Bilal town was at the end of the newly built colony and was a fort like structure. The house had two compound walls. The outer wall was about 18 feet high while the inner compound walls more than 7 feet high, and two separate housing structures were built inside with windows not directed towards the road.

OBL's Abbottabad compound, raided by US commandos

The house is situated at a very secure place, Kakul Military Academy is situated in the west and high hills are in East. The house had only one vehicular approach road.

As far as the security is concerned, it was completely scanned with security gadgets, security cameras, CCTV monitors, speakers phone, and the automatic electric gate, which were secure enough to stop any attempt from pedestrians to enter the compound.

But nothing could stop commandos taking Arial Route. It is said that around 25 to 30 US Commandos arrived on two helicopters, one of which was damaged and caught fire in result of the firing by OBL and his companions, thus lighted the whole area. However, after landing safely, the commandos started targeted operation. Later wreckage was left at the scene.

OBL resisted for forty minutes, and finally was shot dead along with one of his wives and three children. A 12-year-old daughter remained safe as she took refuge in upper story of the house and later was nabbed by the operating commandos and is with Americans now, the sources maintained. 

The available details through intelligence sources suggest that the operating team was fully aware even with the minor details of the house and whereabouts of OBL who was present on the second story of the double story building with his Yemeni wife and a Kuwaiti Guard along with children.

From where the helicopters took off still remains a mystery with different sources in the intelligence giving conflicting reports.  Some sources suggest that helicopters took off from Jalalabad air base in Eastern Afghanistan. The information provided by other intelligence sources suggests that the helicopters flew from Ghazi base in Tarbela area. Former chief of Pakistani premier spy agency, ISI, and once US collaborator General Hameed Gul also agreed the second opinion. Former chief spy while talking to media maintained with full conviction that the helicopters took off and went back to Ghazi Base. 

  

The post operation search of the house revealed that the house belonged to Some Mr. Arshad Khan s/o Naqeeb Khan, hailing from village Fas-Tungi of Charsadda District of KPK. A non-computerized Identity Card, which has been replaced with new one, has been recovered along with other papers. Number on the card was 1397743092.

The house was built in 2005. Initially it was totally isolated, later few other houses were built in the area and the intelligence sources still believed that the few surrounding houses also belonged to Bin Laden group. Eyewitness only noticed a land cruiser and another vehicle, but no individual was seen ever outside the house, neither a face was seen from the black windows of the vehicles.  

It is also believed that another wife of OBL was present in the compound and was injured with a bullet in left leg. She along with four other suspects are in American custody and are shifted somewhere in Afghanistan.

  

On the other hand Islamabad politically seems totally stunned that the intelligence sharing and cooperation for the operation was in place at very high level in the intelligence agencies but the political leadership was kept in complete dark. A government officer confided on the condition of anonymity that same number of Pakistani commandos provided cover to the operating US soldiers.

Truth behind the operation, and about Pak-US security cooperation could not be verified as no independent sources are available at the moment, but it is certain that political leadership’s lips are sealed. Foreign Office and ISPR are stunned, eyebrows are up and foreheads of top men in the civilian and military establishment are not straight any more.

How OBL was traced is a movie like story? Initially a satellite telephone call was traced in May 2010, from somewhere in Abbottabad, a track was kept till August last year when last call was traced, sources confided.

The intelligence sources also confirm that the Bin Laden was traced through a human courier. In fact CIA was keeping an eye on a Yemeni citizen since 2005 after some of his mysterious activities. The Courier was finally spotted in 2007, after his relationship with Al-Qaeda was established, but nobody at CIA knew that he is a man of Bin Laden himself.   

Bin Laden was not using mobile, Internet, satellite phone or any other electronic device from the compound he was staying. However, calls were being made some where from Kala Dhaka or adjacent jungle areas, but whenever a raid was conducted, nobody was found there. Few months back the man spotted by CIA was found entering the compound of Bilal Town where operation was conducted late Sunday night. However, still it was mystery that whom the man meets. But finally last week he was found walking along with Bin Laden in the compound of the house, and thus established that the host is no one else but Osama Bin Laden!

President Obama informed President Zardari about the successful operation, according to the US president and the Pakistan Foreign Office. Emergency situation emerged with the bombshell like information by President Obama. The worried president Zardari called an emergency meeting at Presidency in the early morning duly attended by Army Chief, ISI Chief, MI Chief and IB Chief, beside President, Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and other top officials.

The meeting discussed threadbare the pros and cons of the operation, and sources maintain that the consensus emerged at the meeting was about a fierce backlash by Tehrik e Taliban, Al-Qaeda and different splinter Islamist groups.

General Kayani, who visited Islamabad thrice today and Intelligence Chiefs briefed the meeting about their recent deliberations with Admiral Mullen, General Petraeus and other US Generals who visited Islamabad last week. The army Chief informed the meeting that the mistrust between the two countries and the ISI and CIA leads towards keeping the operation proceedings secret up to some extent.

United States believes that whenever any intelligence report was shared with Pakistan, it was leaked at lower level, and this was the sole reason for taking very limited support and cover and keeping the operation proceedings secret.

The meeting decided to maintain silence, except at the Foreign Office level. Only Prime Minister uttered few lines in support of the statement issued by FO. However, it is said that the ISPR is considering issuing some details of the operation with prior permission of the military leadership, but it may take few days.

In view of the extent of the backlash, security of the Army Chief, MI Chief, ISI Chief and other Military top Brass is beefed up, invisible security of the president and the Prime Minister is also increased following the intelligence reports.

On the other hand Intelligence sources revealed that an emergency meeting of Al-Qaeda leadership in Afghanistan was held in border areas of Eastern Afghanistan to discuss the situation after the death of its leader. The intelligence agencies and independent observers believe that the man targeted in Abbottabad was no more a functional head of Al-Qaeda; however he was source of finances for the outfit. Intelligence sources are indicating fierce backlash despite the fact that he was not active nowadays and more vigorously and strongly by Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan. The later in a latest video message has threatened more attacks inside Pakistan. “Pakistan is our enemy number one”, says spokesman of TTP in his latest message, adding that “we will refresh our war with the already terrorism hit country”. The TTP also threatened to target top Pakistani leadership including President, PM, and others and the military leadership.

The worrisome aspect of the operation lies in the fact that the most wanted man was living just two kilometers away from the Military Academy, and no intelligence agency was aware of it. This raises serious questions regarding the capabilities of our agencies.

The post operation scenario according to the observers is very serious. It is now a proven fact that stories of Bin Laden’s presence in Shagai area of South Waziristan, Shwal’s Jungle of North Waziristan, Kunhar, and Chitral are correct and true. He according to the sources arrived in Abbottabad from Chitral through Bisham and Kohistan.

Observers like Nazir Naji, Najam Sethi, Dr. Riffat Hussain and General Talat Masud have expressed fear that US will now increase pressure on Pakistan regarding presence of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Mullah Umar and other Taliban and Al-Qaeda high value targets, and Pakistan will not be in a position to say no to the demands.

It is disclosed that some of the elements in the US establishment have already started raising questions regarding the Quetta Shura, thus a threat of physical military boots on Pakistani soil has increased. Same demand and attitude is also feared to be raised by India.

Intelligence sources also confided that two of the top Al-Qaeda operatives including a Bali (Indonesia) bombing suspects were recently nabbed from Abbottabad. This according to intelligence sources indicates that Abbottabad and Faisalabad, because of the nature of the two cities, are being used as safe heaven by Al-Qaeda operatives, and this was the reason for many arrests from both cities. 

Sources on the other hand reveal that the military leadership is not happy with the news aired by some of the channels regarding radar jamming during the operation. The leaked information may endanger security of the nuclear assets, said sources adding that the airing such news items display impression that anybody having such technology may harm our nuclear safety any time.

Whatever the situation may be, the government and Pakistan are in very hot waters, and threats will be increased for Pakistan in the days to come, and trust of the Pakistani intelligence agencies will also be reduced, according to the independent observers.

PPP-PML-Q to Wed Soon-V: Arch Rivals With Blood Feud Make Formal Announcement to Suddenly Become Allies; Alliance to Continue Beyond Present Term of Government

By Aijaz Ahmed

Islamabad: Pakistan Peoples Party under Mr. Asif Ali Zardari and PML-Q of Choudhris Gujrat have formally announced an agreement in principle to form a coalition government and a political cooperation for next general elections.

According to the official press release issued today by Presidential spokesman, a meeting was held in the Presidency Sunday night between leaders of the PPP and PML-Q, which was participated by Choudhry Shujaat Hussain, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Raja Basharat of the PML-Q and President Asif Ali Zardari Co-Chairman PPP, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Raja Pervez Ashraf and Spokesperson Farhatullah Babar from the PPP side.

Briefing media persons, the Spokesperson said that the meeting took place in the context of the on going dialogue between the two parties aimed at the political re-alignment and strengthening the reconciliation process to address various issues confronting the country in an atmosphere of political stability, mutual tolerance and accommodation.

The two parties agreed to work together and cooperate for strengthening democracy, ensuring electoral reforms, reforms in FATA, creation of new provinces especially in Southern Punjab (Siraiki) and Hazara, subject to consultations with the people and approval of the stakeholders including the appropriate amendments to the Constitution for this purpose. Farhatullah Babar said that the two parties agreed to cooperate in a number of areas of concern to the people including the economic uplift, controlling inflation, issues related to power shortage, transparency and accountability and improvement in the law and order situation in the country.

PPP-PML-Q delegations meet: file photo from internet

Following the agreement in principle, the PML-Q agreed to form coalition government with the PPP in the center headed by the PPP Prime Minister. The two parties also agreed to cooperate in the next elections, which will be held in accordance with the Constitution, he said.

The two parties rejected any change in the government except through the mechanism of free, fair and transparent elections as laid down in the Constitution.

On the other hand, sources in the power structure are of the view that despite announcement of the cooperation by the two sides, the mixing of hearts and minds of the two parties once having strong rivalry will be quite difficult and a sizeable number of old and loyal PPP leaders and workers may revolt against the decision of Mr. Zardari. They think Mian Raza Rabbani and Shah Mehmood Qureshi may cash in the situation in the near future.

The PPP leaders having reservations against the agreement with Q league opined that a person like Pervaiz Elahi who was nominated by BB herself before her brutal murder will become all powerful Deputy Prime Minister and will run a separate cabinet within the present cabinet of Yusuf Raza Gilani.

Nominating Pervaiz Elahi as deputy PM or the senior minister will give a negative message to the party workers and the democratic forces, said Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the latest dissident of the party.

Ghazanfar Gul, a traditional rival of Choudhris in the Gujrat politics, has raised another strong voice against the alliance. He is not ready to eat the cake that is being baked by the Shujaat family. ‘We have been opposing Choudhris in Gujrat and elsewhere in Punjab even at Union Council level and now besides reaching an alliance with them, Pervaiz Elahi who was nominated in murder by BB herself, is being tipped as future Deputy Prime Minister. How could we accept them in the government and ask our workers to support them’, he questioned.

Notwithstanding any opposition and the criticism, the alliance is announced, as no government would commit suicide on the eve of the budget, and thus PPP in the power has a compulsion to join hands with Q League on the terms dictated by the former “Qatil” (murderer) League.

The nitty-gritty has been finalized for the alliance, and oath taking can be arranged any time from now onwards, said a PPP source adding that next tow days are quite important for cabinet extension and a revolt in the PPP.

MQM Target Killers' Taped Interrogation; Some Of Them Received Training in India; How Did They Work?

Some important trained MQM terrorists, target killers and operatives were arrested during past few weeks. Their taped interrogation has been posted on youtube. It carries substantial information on the working, training, organization and operations. One of them talks of MQM men's training in India. The other operative talks of how they were assigned "tasks" and how the organization was controlled from London. The interrogation gives an insight into the operations of the MQM terrorist wing.

Interrogation of Ajmal Pehari:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgOs7XTdaNo&feature=related

Interrogation of Shahnawaz aka Shah Rukh
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDdiAEc9CG4

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyTPWfgneaI&feature=related

Benazir Bhutto – Khoon-e-Raigaan?

Indus Herald comment:

Her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, founder of PPP, who served as president and Prime Minister of Pakistan in 1970s was overthrown by the Army and murdered by generals and judges. But at least his blood didn’t go in vain. Like the incident at Karbala, it gave a new life to his party and helped it withstand the most repressive military dictatorship of General Zia and later get electoral successes to form governments twice in Pakistan.

But alas, it could not be said of his daughter, Benazir Bhutto. She had nominated military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, the then Chief Minister of Punjab, Choudhry Pervaiz Elahi, former Intelligence Bureau (IB) chief, Ijaz Shah (who was also ex-army officer and an operative of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence, ISI, a formidable military intelligence agency), along with some others in case anything happened to her.

The government that came into power on a sympathy vote after her tragic assassination led by her husband Asif Ali Zardari, bid farewell to General Musharraf with full military honor and a salute. The government elected and being run in her name, is not pursuing her murder case appropriately and despite clear and repeated orders by a court hearing the case, it is doing nothing to get the former military dictator extradited to the country to face the trial where he faces charges as an accused. A UN probe had also held him responsible.

The government is also not taking any action against Ijaz Shah and now it has entered into an alliance with PML-Q, which PPP leaders earlier had dubbed as Qatil (murderer) league, meaning it was implicated in Benazir Bhutto assassination. As if that was not enough, Ch. Pervaiz Elahi, a man nominated by Benazir Bhutto herself is being appointed as the Deputy Prime Minister. Now would a Deputy Prime Minister allow any investigation against him in a murder case?

Isn’t it true then that Benazir Bhutto’s blood has gone in vain? Khoon-e-Naahaq" gone "Khoon-e-Raigaan? The people who have her blood on their hands are either already in the government or about to join the government while others are living abroad under government security!

(Photos: courtesy internet.)

PPP-PML-Q to Wed Soon – IV: Arch Rivals Agree on Details! Intelligence Chief Ensure the Deal? Finally Faisal Saleh Hayat Shakes Hand With Zardari; Both Parties to Sign a CoD; PML-N’s Counter Moves to End Siege in Punjab

Zardari ensures second term! 

By Aijaz Ahmed

The political landscape of the country is going to be altered soon as the PPP and PML-Q have finally reached a deal with the blessings of the chief of the country’s top spy agency with a Lahore based business tycoon and a top builder of the country being one of the guarantors!

Observers believe that the ‘deal’ will certainly bring political stability in the country, which will ultimately restore the trust of the business and the investors. However, they also believe the deal will make way for change in Punjab’s political landscape as well.

The umpteenth ‘political wonder’ was finalized late Thursday night at presidency where Ch. Shujaat and Pervaiz Elahi along with few colleagues had a formal meeting and dinner with President who also happens to be Co-Chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

 The new element of the meeting whispered by sources at the Pakistan’s Capital Hill was an inventory list from the Presidency side. Sources are ready to bear all burden of the list that is being revealed and according to them the ISI Chief General Ahmed Shuja Pasha was the strongest witness and a wheeler-dealer of the agreement.

Details of the agreement are the same, which Indus Herald has already revealed with one minor addition that Ch. Pervaiz Elahi will be appointed deputy prime minister and an amendment to this affect will be made accordingly. The top builder of the country and Chief of Bahria Town, Malik Riaz was guarantor from the Presidency side while Lahore based business tycoon Ch. Siddique was present as a guarantor from Q league side, sources added.

Although, the deal in itself is being considered as yet another political achievement of Mr. Zardari even in the worst political situation, the real achievement he secured in the deal is second Presidential term for him. PML-Q has agreed to support his candidature in the next presidential elections at completion of the current term and the move is fully backed by present military leadership including the ISI chief, sources added.

‘The situation in the country needs continuity at top level, and also a person who understands army point of view beside having a backing from Europe and also from a strong US lobby is suitable’, sources say adding that he (Zardari) is the one who refuses to completely bow down to US demands in the present situation and that has created and strengthened mutual trust between the Pak Army and President Zardari. Army wants him to stay for another five years and thus the demand was made part of the agreement at the last minute, and was ensured to be agreed by ISI Chief, sources claimed.

Some of the points included in the deal indicate the reason why UK had interest in the alliance, and thus the efforts made by them have succeeded, sources also observed.

In the second round of the political parlays and to further discuss some minor details of the deal, Ch Shujaat had another meeting with President after Jumma Prayers at the Presidency and this time Faisal Saleh Hayat, a former PPP stalwart and presently Parliamentary leader of the party in National Assembly replaced Pervaiz Elahi to discuss his own grievances and reservations with the president.

Confirming the meeting, Farhat Ullah Babar, the presidential spokesman observed that ‘current political situation of the country was discussed during the meeting. The meeting was held in the context of over all political reconciliation in the country and realignment of political forces. Such meetings will also take place in the future’, he added.

Giving the actual context of the meeting, the sources and the witnesses of the meeting observed that the peer from Jhang, a remote and less developed district between the central and southern Punjab had reservations against his former party colleague for certain personal and other reasons. Both former colleagues and rivals had a warm handshake and held detailed discussion on his reservations. Both were at ease and in friendly mood when the meeting ended sources observed. Mr. Hayat was assured that PPP would not field Begum Abida Hussain against him as a candidate, while he will not pursue his case on rental power and other energy issues in return, sources confided.

Although, both the parties have agreed to enter in a marriage of convenience they still harbor mutual mistrust and have formed committees to keep a vigilant eye on each other.

The way, PPP handled Nawaz Sharif and put him in the political isolation has made the PML-Q think twice and Choudhris could not have blind trust in Mr. Zardari. Thus they insisted to sign a formal agreement on the pattern of charter of democracy (CoD) said a PML-Q leader. The charter will be signed in front of the national media, he added

As obvious, PML-N feels heat from the new alliance, as its government in Punjab may become a casualty. The besieged PML-N in its bid to end the political isolation has embarked on a new game plan. The PML-N just before the deal is being signed rushed to the nationalist political parties of Sindh having strong rivalries with the PPP. The PML-N delegation led by Zulfiqar Khosa, a Sardar from Dera Ghazi Khan had political deliberations with Mumtaz Bhutto, the famous talented cousin of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The younger Bhutto left Begum Nusrat Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto Shaheed alone just few days after ZAB was hanged till death by military dictator Zia.

Ever since, BB was martyred at Liaquat Bagh, Rawalpindi, Mumtaz Ali Bhutto is trying to become his political and legal heir. He warmly welcomed Punjab’s leadership and assured full support. ‘We will support every political party struggling to make Pakistan stronger and prosperous’, he observed after the meeting.

Political observers are taking PML-N’s move a desperate attempt to teach a strong lesson to former ally and a partner in the Charter of Democracy in its political strong hold and power base, the Sindh province. However, they are not sure that the move will be taken as a wise and a sharp one by Sindhi voters, as they have already discarded Junior Bhutto many times, they believe.

News Byte:

In yet another political move the PML-N has formally demanded for a fresh political mandate in the shape of mid term elections. Confirming what Indus Herald had already revealed, Mian Nawaz Sharif while talking to a TV Anchorperson refreshed his demand. He said President Zardari had called him twice since he underwent heart surgery. He said he told Mr. Zardari that a fresh mandate in the shape of mid term or general national elections was the only way forward to fight the challenges being faced by the country. Mr. Zardari in return was of the view that the government shall complete its tenure, he maintained.

Nawaz Sharif was also skeptical of the role of military establishment and ISI in the national affairs. ‘I know, the government in the office must have powers to take decisions on the important issues. But as of now, major decisions on the matters related to the foreign policy, war on terror and issues like that of Raymond Davis are being taken by the military top brass, and not by the political government’, he added.

UK’s Interest in PPP-PML-Q Deal! Hectic Political Hob-knobbing in Islamabad; Another Alliance in Offing; Imran Khan’s Dharna & Meetings With Generals

PPP-PML-Q to Wed Soon, III: 

By Aijaz Ahmed

Foreign intervention in Pakistan’s internal affairs means influence exerted by the governments of the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar or the UK for most of the part, and by one or the other means this foreign involvement was and has been quite a regular feature for last several decades, however, any involvement of this sort in the affairs like making political alliances has not been that common.

Formation of the political alliances for or against the government in Pakistan has mostly been a job done either by the politicians themselves when the fruits of change were seen ripe or a job smartly done by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as it happened when the military establishment went on the other side of the fence against Benazir Government in late eighties.

This is the reason why British involvement to ensure a deal between PPP of Asif Ali Zardari and Q league of Choudhris was taken as a surprise as no one could grasp the UK interest in Q league, when its blue eyed former dictator General Musharraf is in the political arena and has shifted his residence from the posh aristocratic locality of the world’s political Capitol, London to UAE, the growing hub of international interests of cross sections.

The sources in the power corridors have witnessed a leading British diplomat shuttling between the government and the Q league even attending the meetings where the knitty-gritty is being finalized.

The said diplomat was seen present at a meeting of PML-Q stalwarts at one of the farm houses in Shahzad Town, a posh suburban area of beautiful Islamabad. Later the participants gathered at the residence of Owais Leghari, son of former president Farooq Leghari and one of the PMLQ stalwart.

Owais has been one of the staunch opponents of PPP since his father and once PPP follower dissolved second Benazir Government after being elected by his mother party. In addition, he is said to be among those who are not happy with his party’s decision to shake hands with PPP. He however, is said to have been neutralized with an option of his favorite IT ministry and a lucrative office in Punjab, if the deal is struck.

The dinner hosted by young Owais turned into a big political gathering with few faces from PPP and also a sizeable number of the members from the parties sitting with PPP in government. A huge number of diplomats including the US and Britain were among the participants

On the other hand sources at presidency were of the view that two more names are included in the run for next governor Punjab along with Maqsood Leghari, a tribal elder and uncle of Owais. Ch. Wajahat, younger brother of Shujaat is being considered as a candidate for the seat, while Pervaiz Elahi could be nominated on the post for an interim period till safe management of a peaceful political change in the Punjab government.

Presidency sources also witnessed a visit by few PML-Q leaders excluding Ch. Shujaat to the Pakistan’s current Capital Hill, the presidency and an informal central secretariat of PPP. The arrival of Q league team at presidency is said to be part of the deliberations for finalizing points of the agreement to be written and signed by leaders if both parties.

Sources are confident that the deal will be finalized in the current week and will successfully be implemented in next few days. Majority of the PPP leaders except Raza Rabbani are said to be successfully managed by President Zardari. Raza Rabbani has asked his party to relieve him from his ministry as he doesn’t want to leave his current office as a mark of protest, but presidency is quite confident that he will be managed again.

Imran Khan: Agencies' trump card or Taliban's Goebbels?

In addition to the new alliance in the making between PPP and PML-Q, another alliance is believed to be emerging with participation of Jamaat i Islami, JUI, Dharna fame Imran Khan, and other parties having no representation in the parliament.

The alliance is believed to have blessings of our worthy agencies, being part of their visible strategy to topple another elected government at center and all the four provinces, sources confided.

The move is part of a plan to install a technocrats’ government under Imran Khan or any other suitable candidate. The former cricket captain has been accused of holding secret meetings with Generals in the recent past. He is also blamed for staging a dharna at Peshawar on the signals from the powers that be.

Reaction of Imran Khan on the charges was full of contradictions. What price agencies can pay for me, he questions. I am not for sale and they (agencies) are not in position to buy me. But he could not satisfy on blessings from Hameed Gul and the present mindset in the agencies. While terming the allegation regarding his meetings with generals baseless, he had to finally admit that he met only with General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, Chief of ISI.

Pakistan Army to Restore Peace in Bahrain, III: Pakistan To Send 20,000 Troops To Saudi Arabia, To Cooperate in Building Saudi Nuclear Deterrence

Strategic Shift in PPP Government and Saudi Arabia Relations Emerges!

 

 By Aijaz Ahmed

Known for suicidal missions, attacks and bombings, Pakistan is believed to have reached a collective sucidal defense understanding with Saudi Arabia ostensibly ‘to secure and guard the holy land from political turmoil that may hit the country with extended influence from neighbouring Bahrain’, sources in the power corridoors have whsipered to Indus Herald in Islamabad.

The specifics of the ‘security arrangement’ are a tightly guarded secret but it is believed that the deal for the security of the oil rich holy kingdom includes sending up to 20,000 troops and recruitment of retired personnel for Saudi defense forces if Riyadh were to face an internal uprising, sources confided. Additionally, the package includes purchase of military hardware from Pakistan and intensified efforts to build Saudi nuclear deterrence for which Saudi Arabia has an infrastructure at Al-Sulayyil, south of Riyadh, a secret underground city with dozens of underground silos for missiles.

Hina Rabbani Khar

Although Junior Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar’s two day visit to Riyadh was officially described as a trip for “strengthening the existing bonds of friendship and brotherhood”, the visit was in fact meant to convey political leadership’s endorsement of the upgradation of security ties between the two countries to unprecedented levels  - an arrangement that has already been worked out at the military level.

Indeed, Saudis have always had excellent ties with Pakistan’s military top brass command at the GHQ; however, its relations with PPP leadership have never been good since the bad old days of General Zia, with whom they collaborated even after he hanged a leader like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, once darling of Saudi and other Arab Leadership.

Prior to the current spell of spasmodic proximity being espoused so eagerly by the Saudi monarchy, it always treated PPP leaders with great disdain – rather contempt. Not long ago Wikileaks had quoted King Abdullah as having mentioned party’s co-chairman and country’s president Asif Ali Zardari as a ‘rotten head’ and obstruction in the development of the country, says the Pak Foreign Policy Blog while commenting on recent developments between Pakistan’s political leadership in the office and Saudi Royal family over uprising in Bahrain.

Thus, the visit of Ms. Khar was very crucial because it came at a time when new alignments were being made in the view of the heightening cold war and the new great game in the Gulf region between Iran and Arab monarchies with the dividing line drawn in the sands of Bahrain.

Gen. Kayani

Whisperings in Islamabad’s diplomatic circuit speak of unrealistic fears in Riyadh that PPP leadership may not back the deal they had clinched with Gen Kayani & Co, so they backed up their efforts by launching Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the onetime Saudi ambassador to Washington and now the secretary-general of the Saudi National Security Council, as the additional pointman on Pakistan, who not only toured Pakistan, but was kind enough to write a follow up letter to Prime Minister Gilani “reiterating desire to further strengthen these relations in all areas of mutual interest.” Pakistan government very proudly flaunted the letter. Earlier, relations with Islamabad were mostly conducted through the intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz.

In addition to Iran, recent problems in Riyadh-Washington relations have compelled Saudis to go expedite renewed alignment with Pakistani civilian leadership, sources in power corridors and the diplomatic circles observed. As President Obama and his administration viewed Saudis with distrust as financiers of the insurgency in Afghanistan, Saudis, according to International Energy Agency, reduced oil production in mid-March at a crucial time despite an earlier promise with Washington to make up for the Libyan oil made unavailable because of NATO opperation against Col Gaddafi’s forces.

Pakistan, cognizant of the fallout at home in the shape of revived sectarian clashes, gambled to dive into the Iran-Arab cold war by siding with the Saudis because its military leadership found it to be in sync with the American strategic calculations for the region.

Washington’s security architecture for the Arab world is believed to be based on the continuation of existing monarchies in the oil rich region. And Pakistan’s strategic thinking is no different, commentes Pak Fpreign Policy Blog. To quote President Zardari: “Pakistan desires peace, security, and stability in Bahrain. Pakistan … would not like its (region`s) stability to be upset in any way. Pakistan believes that it would be dangerous for regional peace and stability if the system was destabilized one way or the other”.

So here lies the convergence of interests between Islamabad and Washington. Where Saudis are out to get military/security benefits from Pakistan, Islamabad is looking to meet its insatiable desire for easy money and cheap fuel to keep itself going and footing the bill for leaders’ shenanigans. It Would also be worth mentioning that the Indus Herald in one of its earlier stories on this subject had disclosed seome developments on revival of Pak-Saudi Defence Cooperation Agreement. The current deal shall be taken as informal revival of the agreement and part of the development, and the agreement may  formally be revived if a legal hitch comes in the way of implementation of the understanding, sources maintained

The deal may ring alarming bells in the Washington, and the reaction from White House and Pentagon would be of considerable. The United States has been uneasily watching Pak-Saudi partnership under the garb of reinvigoration of bilateral ties focussed on curbing the ‘rise of Iran backed political movement for democracy among the Shias of the Arab world through measures ranging from deployment of  up to 20,000 Pakistani regular troops in Saudi Arabia and building of Riyadh’s nuclear deterrence capacity.

The issue was part of deliberations with Pakistan Army during the recently concluded visit of US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen to islamabad, sources revealed; however, they are tight lipped over the outcome of the deliberation on the issue between General Kiyani and Mr. Mullen.

US dilemma is that it wouldn’t like to see Saudi Arabia becoming another nuclear nightmare but at the same time it can’t do much other than turning a blind eye to Pakistan’s support to the Saudi royal family increasingly worried not only about Iran dominating the region, but also fretful about losing power, PFP comments. Remember King Abdullah is so upset about the prospects of threats to the monarchy that he shortened his recuperation rest after two surgeries against doctors’ advice and rushed back home to deal with the crisis.

THE NUCLEAR BOMB:

It may be recalled that it was reported in international press including the Washington Times in October 2003 that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had entered a secret agreement on "nuclear cooperation" providing Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons technology in return for access to cheap oil for Pakistan.

In March 2006, the German magazine Cicero reported that Saudi Arabia had since 2003 received assistance from Pakistan to acquire nuclear missiles and warheads.

Saudi defector Muhammad Khilewi, once served as Saudi deputy chief of mission at the UN, had also few years back disclosed documents that Riyadh funded Pakistan’s nuclear program on the condition that if Saudi Arabia felt threatened at any time it can benefit from Pakistani arsenal.

And according to a testimony of Israeli intelligence chief before Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Riyadh has been asking Pakistan to provide nuclear war heads for its missiles.

Probably there wouldn’t be a more crucial time than now to ask Pakistan for the promised ‘pay back’.

Saudi defense infrastructure

Siraiki Province: PML-N Falling Into Zardari’s Trap; To Be Limited To Central Punjab

By: Aziz Narejo

Shahbaz Sharif: insane politics?

In a glaring example of cynical, reactionary and unprincipled politics, Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif the other day demanded that Sindh be divided and Karachi be made a province. His statement justifiably created furore in Sindh and the parliamentary parties including PPP, MQM and ANP as well as other politicians and activists swiftly condemned the unimaginative and unscrupulous statement by the PML-N leader.

The PML-N government and Punjabi nationalists seem to be under considerable pressure as the demand for a separate Siraiki province is gathering momentum in southern Punjab but this was most crooked and uncalled for response that could ever come from anyone with even the slightest political wisdom. PML-N leader was obviously trying to get back with the PPP. It may be noted that PM Gilani has suggested the creation of a new province in southern Punjab and PPP manifesto committee is deliberating to make it a part of the PPP manifesto for next elections.

No Sindhi would have any objections if Shahbaz Sharif, other PML-N leaders and Punjabis as a whole turn into nationalists but all the Punjabis and others should understand that Sindh and PPP are not ONE and the same. They are two separate entities. PML-N can’t and shouldn’t get back with the PPP by hurting Sindh. It must agree or disagree with the Siraiki people’s demand for a separate province with the force of arguments and not by playing tit for tat, conspiratorial and ugly politics.

PML-N should also realize that with this kind of politics they will be completely routed out from Sindh and their aspirations to become a “national” party or to form next government will die for ever.

Do they understand that this is exactly what PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari wants the PML-N to do? Are they willingly falling into the trap set by Zardari’s PPP? Do they realize that with this kind of politics, they will forever become a Central Punjab party? Are there any sane elements in PML-N who would rein in Shahbaz Sharif and the likes of him in their party? Guess not. Good luck to them on their journey to doom.